Fantasy Football: July 2010

Since my fellow blog brother finally initiated the "hard launch" on his fantasy football blog...http://sdubsports.com/...I thought it was time to give you a true experts thoughts on the upcoming season.

And since all experts love to compare people to past performers, here you go.

RUNNING BACK:
The #1 RB at the end of the year will be Ray Rice.

#2 will be Jamaal Charles - who will be this years Chris Johnson. Don't worry about Thomas Jones, JC will finish with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

Chris Johnson will be this year's Michael Turner. Justifiably hyped in the pre-season as a top back. Question marked for overuse in the previous year. Will have a good season, but will not match prior year's production.

If you have one of the top 6 RB's (CJ2K, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore, Charles), then I'd wait to get a 2nd RB. There is tons of value in the Matt Forte/Michael Bush/Justin Forsett/Donald Brown/Ahmad Bradshaw/Arian Foster/Montario Hardesty/Fred Jackson/Clinton Portis group. All guys will go in rounds 5 or later and produce just as well as the Ronnie Brown's/LeSean McCoy's/Joseph Addai's of the fantasy world.

QUARTERBACK:

If you sleep on Kevin Kolb, you will regret it like everyone who passed on Aaron Rodgers the year after he took over for Brett Favre.

QB is a pretty deep position this year, so if you can't get one of the top 5 QB's (Roders, Brees, Peyton, Romo, Brady) then I would wait and double stack on two up and coming QB's in hope one breaksout. That list includes Kolb, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, Matt Leinart, Matt Moore, and Jason Campbell.

WIDE RECEIVER:

This year's Sidney Rice...Jacoby Jones. Both play for teams with three solid WR's. Both have excellent QB's (top 7 fantasy QB's in Schaub and Favre). Both play for offensive powerhouses.

Vincent Jackson will be this year's (and the year before) Brandon Marshall. A guy people stay away from due to suspensions, but ends up with over 1,000 yards and is a great value pick. Vjax is missing 3 weeks. I know rumors say he may hold out. I say if you stack up on a RB and QB early in your draft, I'd take a flier on Vjax as you number 1 WR. He might not be better than say Santana Moss. But the reward is far greater and you don't win fantasy football championships by playing it safe.

Out of all the breakout wide receiver candidates, I like Michael Crabtree the most. He has the best shot at jumping to the tier 1 category of fantasy WR's. I like what I saw from him last year. I expect Vernon Davis to regress this year, so more balls for Crabtree. I think the 49ers will have an easy schedule playing against the NFC West. And the 49ers defense will work wonders at providing the offense with excellent field position.

There are many sleeper picks I like: Devin Aromashodu, Golden Tate, James Jones, the aforementioned Jacoby Jones, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Malcom Floyd, Chaz Schilens, Jabar Gaffney, Nate Burleson, Devin Thomas. I think if you're in a deep league (say 12-14 teams), then my game plan would be to get two stud WR's early. Wait on your #3 WR and get one of these guys. That way you can load up on QB/RB/TE. Who knows you may even get two of these sleepers and have the luxury of mixing and matching.

TIGHT END:

Deepest position of the draft. I'm almost inclined to let the big guys go (Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley) and take better value later on in the draft. I think Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Fred Davis, Tony Scheffler, John Carlson will all have just as good seasons as some of the other bigger name players (Tony G., Vernon Davis). Even better, since I count at least sixteen quality TE's available, you can wait until the very end and pick up two of the tier 3 guys and hope one breaks out. Hey, it worked for whoever took Brent Celek or Vernon Davis.

DEFENSE/KICKER:

While I agree that it is wise to wait until the very end to take a kicker and defense, I think there is an argument to be made for going one round early (if you're in a 15 round league, picking defense/kicker in some order in the 13th and 14th round). Unless there is someone you really, really, really like...then I'd jump on getting a guy or defensive unit that you can feel comfort in playing each week. Yes, you may get lucky playing the weekly matchups routine or finding a surprise on the waiver wire. But odds are there will be plenty of people in your league who carry more than one at each position. And that's not even starting to go into always figuring out who to drop. Bench spots are valuable. Playing that game can come back to haunt you.

As my former blog brother would say...only 38 days until the ROFFL draft. Better get studying.