Summer Movie Preview: June 2010

So May has come to an end and this has to go down as one of the most disappointing May's in summer box office history. Every movie that came out underwhelmed. We already saw two box office bombs. Three more box office disappointments. And not a single well reviewed major movie.

Let's recap quickly (check out my May movie preview at http://bypremier.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-summer-movie-preview-may.html.)

I predicted Iron Man 2 to do huge business. It did well opening weekend, but $128mm was still below expectations. It's done over $277mm so far, but looks to come in just around the $318mm the first one made. Everyone thought the sequel would make more than the first one, but audiences were not too pleased with the second one. Hopefully, the third one can rediscover the greatness of the first entry.

Robin Hood did OK business, but won't make more than the Kevin Costner version. This will be another blow to the box office clout of Russell Crowe.

If any movie exceeded expectations, it was Letters from Juliet. The romantic movie will finish will a good $45-50mm. Amanda Seyfried will be a huge star if she keeps this up (she was in Mamma Mia and Dear John). Who would have thought when Mean Girls came out, that Lindsay Lohan would be the third biggest star of the movie (following Rachel McAdams and Seyfried).

Just Wright and McGruber came and went in the blink of an eye. Neither made much of a dent at the box office and will go on to enjoy a nice run on DVD. McGruber was especially a huge flop, not even making back its estimated $10mm budget. It may have single-handedly killed any hope of future SNL skit to screen movies.

Shrek 4 also did decent business, but easily came in as the worst performing in the franchise. Sure it'll be the #1 movie two weekends in a row, but...

...that's because Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia both came up short at the box office. It's clear that audiences were not screaming for a second Sex and the City movie, when the first one wrapped things up perfectly. Audiences were also not screaming for Jake Gyllenhall as an action hero. SATC 2 will make over $!00mm, but come up far short of the first entry. Prince of Persia won't even make $100mm, and won't even 50% of the estimated $150mm budget. There goes Jake's franchise hopes.

Let's hope June has more to offer...I know the movie studios and theaters hope so:

JUNE 2010:

Get Him to the Greek: A chance to qualify under #4 and #8.

Starring: Jonah Hill, Russell Brand, and P. Diddy

This movie has an outside chance to be this summer’s breakout comedy hit. A sequel of sorts to “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” (in the way that “Evan Almighty” was a sequel to “Bruce Almighty”), “Greek” takes the rocker Aldris Snow from the first movie and makes him the star. The red band trailer looks partially funny, but I expect a lot more crazy stuff to happen in the movie. The star here will be Brand (aka Katy Perry’s lucky boyfriend) and he could put himself on another level if this movie finds much success. However, his humor also has the ability to turn lots of people off with its brashness and outrageousness. Expect a final gross in the $50-55mm final gross matching “Sarah Marshall’s” total.

Pros: A star making turn for Russell Brand?

Cons: “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” wasn't exactly the biggest hit and didn't really cry out for sequel. Also, too raunchy to be a breakout hit?

Killers: A chance to qualify under #5 and #9.

Starring: Katherine Heigl, Ashton Kutcher, and Tom Selleck.

Directed by: Robert Luketic

People are comparing this movie to "Mr. and Mrs. Smith", but it looks like a more PG version of "True Lies". Except no James Cameron and no Arnold. Plus, Kutcher is no Brad Pitt or Arnold. So in my opinion, this movie lies squarely on the shoulders of Heigl. Since "Grey's Anatomy" and "Knocked Up", Heigl has shown that she can open up a movie by herself (think "27 Dresses" and "The Ugly Truth"). All her films have finished north of $75mm at the box office and I expect "Killers" to do the same.

Pros: Couple friendly concept and stars. Friendly rating. Almost critic proof (see "Bounty Hunter", which will finish with over $60mm at the box office).

Cons: The movie is almost guaranteed to be bad.

Splice: A chance to qualify under #5.

Starring: Adrian Brody and Sarah Polley.

A very interesting horror/suspense movie that combines science and monsters. This has a bit of "Species" mixed in with "Mimic" and I could see it being a breakout hit of sorts as something different during the summer season of bang and boom. The trailers do a good job of adding intrigue while giving you a glimpse of the creature. No name stars might hurt, but I actually think it helps in these types of films (see "District 9"). Stars would only take away from the premise and that is what will sell this film. Expect a straight-to-DVD sequel. Final gross will be a solid $75mm.

Pros: Did I mention the premise?

Cons: These types of movies don't make $100mm (District 9 is the exception).

The A-Team: Qualifies under #2 and #3.

Starring: Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, Sharlito Copley, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, and Jessice Biel.

Directed by: Joe Carnahan

Now this is a movie that I'm really looking forward to. I think the casting is superb. The director's choice is spot on. And this TV show has been screaming for a movie. Now, apparently I don't speak for everyone out there (why is that?). The trailers have been both cool and ridiculous (C'mon, the tank flying in the air). But I think the movie isn't meant to be taken seriously. You come for the famous lines ("I love it when a plan comes together"), the overacting, the action sequences, and the theme song (the whistle part always gets me). This movie will make at least $150mm, but has a chance to top $200mm if the reviews are positive.

Pros: Supposedly one of the coolest action sequences ever. And a possible Mr. T cameo.

Cons: Could it be more "GI Joe" than "Star Trek"?

The Karate Kid: Qualifies under #3

Starring: Jaden Smith, Jackie Chan, and Taraj P. Henson

This movie has set off a firestorm online. Fans of the original movie are in an uproar that their beloved film is being remade with a privileged son of a famous movie star (that would be Will "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air" Smith). Throw in people upset that the movie takes place in China and should factually be known as "The Kung Fu Kid", as well as the Asian population that should be mad that the black kid is clearly going to get the cute little Asian girl at the end of the movie (while kicking the Asian boys ass in a fight) and you can understand why this movie has failure and boycott written all over it. But somewhere between all that madness, people actually started feeling sorry for the movie (kind of like in sports when someone is underrated for so long that they become overrated – see Ben Wallace). Then started the outcry of "Give the movie a chance", "It's actually pretty good", and "Wouldn't you do the same for your son if you could". My prediction, this movie will be a huge hit. The movie will be one of the better reviewed movies of the summer. Jaden Smith will be on his way to super stardom. And the movie will make a ton overseas. It will be this year's Star Trek...put it in the books for $175mm.

Pros: Based on a popular 80's movie and pays proper homage to it. Will reach out to the Asian and African American audiences.

Cons: Still potential for fan backlash. Ralph Macchio might give this movie his blessing, which will actually kill the movie's prospects.

Jonah Hex: Qualifies under #2, #4

Starring: Josh Brolin, Megan Fox, Wil Arnett, and John Malkovich.

Another "based on the comic book/graphic novel" that very few people ever heard of. The backstory on the making of this movie just cries out "bust of the summer" (change of directors, rewrites, Megan Fox's acting)...but then the first trailer came out and I must say I was impressed. Brolin seems tailor made for this role, Fox is her usual sexy self, and the action looks pretty sick. However, it also has a little too much "Wild, Wild, West" in it. I say it bombs, finishing with a box office gross of $50mm (and I really wanted to like this movie. Heck, I’ll probably still go and see it).

Pros: Brolin makes for a better action star than Kutcher. Megan Fox in a corset. Malkovich always kills as the bad guy ("In the Line of Fire" anyone?)

Cons: Bad buzz. Trailers are supposed to look cool, but if they show all the good parts then the movie will suck.

Toy Story 3: Qualifies under #3, #7

Featuring voice by: Tom Hanks and Tim Allen.

One of the few guarantees of the summer. Pixar is can't miss. They are the Jason Heyward/Justin Beiber/child of Tom Brady and Giselle of the movie business. You know exactly what you're going to get. A great movie for all age. Some funny moments. A few touching moments. A great story. And a reason to believe in the beauty of movies again. I can't wait.
But this time the geniuses at Pixar are making it's first ever threequel. And people are starting to express doubt and fear. Doubt that the original ideas are running out. Fear that they are only doing this for the merchandising rights and because Disney demanded it. Well, I say to all those doubters and naysayers...Pixar has given you at least eight reasons why you shouldn't doubt them. And even if it's not as good as the first two, aren't you just a bit glad to see Woody and Buzz one more time. I say it makes $275mm gross.

Pros: Toy Story 1. Toy Story 2. The child in all of us.

Cons: Not many third parts of a franchise are that good. C'mon who am I kidding. There are no cons.

Grown Ups: Qualifies under #8

Starring: Adam Sandler, Chris Rock, Kevin James, David Spade, Rob Schneider, and Salma Hayek.

Directed by: Dennis Dugan

A comedy dream team starring some of the most celebrated and successful SNL alumni. Sandler looks to bounce back after last year's disappointing "Funny People", while the others are just looking to score another big box office hit (sad that Kevin James might be the biggest box office draw out of them all). However, the trailers have yet to make me laugh. Just like the "Funny People" trailers didn't make me laugh. And they keep trying to sell us on the stars (understandably so with this comedy all star lineup) instead of the actual movie. Much like "Funny People" tried to sell us on Apatow. So, I'm not sold on this film. I think it has a chance to be more like "Mr. Deeds" or "Click" than "50 First Dates" or "Big Daddy" on the Adam Sandler scale of greatness. I say this one barely makes $100mm.

Pros: Sandler + Rock + James + Spade + Schneider = Guaranteed to make the teenage and young boys laugh.

Cons: Doesn't it make you wish Chris Farley was there instead of Kevin James. A little too much Salma Hayek in the trailers - not bad if you're a Salma fan, bad if you have hopes of this being a funny movie.

Knight & Day:

Starring: Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz

Directed by: James Mangold

Could this be the movie that reminds us why Cruise was once the biggest movie star in the world? I think it could be. The trailers make me laugh. The action looks slick. Even Diaz comes off at the top of her game. I really think this movie has a chance to garner some good reviews and a pretty box office take. I say it finishes with a $200mm gross.

Pros: Cruise and Diaz are both big box office draws in the right type of film. This is that type of film.

Cons: A corny title. It should have been called Knight & Deay and starred Bobby Knight and Parker Deay.

The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – Qualifies under #3

Starring: Kristin Stewart, Robert Pattinson, Taylor Lautner, and Dakota Fanning.

Are you ready for more pasty faced vampires and shirtless werewolves? Based on the killer box office figures of the first two Twilight films, I’m going to say yes (yes, yes, a thousand times yes). The trailer for Eclipse recently premiered to rousing fan approval. This one looks like it might actually ramp up the action a bit, which could bring in some non-diehards. However, this movie is now in the Harry Potter realm of franchises. The movies will all see final grosses in the same range (Harry Potter makes $260-300mm domestic, Twilight makes about $290-300mm domestic). This is another one of the summer’s locks. A can’t miss.

Pros: Twi-hards. Team Edward. Team Jacob.

Cons: I still don’t get the appeal. The first two were boring to me and almost tortuous to watch. And I don’t think I’m alone on the front.


Check back at the end of June for my thoughts on July movies.

Mini-Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/28/10

Just a short post this week:

1. I’m guest blogging for a friend’s site. Check it out at http://www.nychar.blogspot.com/.

It’s a great site that tells you about events happening in NYC; including free stuff, great deals, and other fun and exciting ways to spend your time.

2. Queensbridge. Say Queensbridge. (Bill Simmons beat me to using this).
But this was one of the funniest things I have ever seen in a sports interview.

Sidenote: Queensbridge Projects is the largest public housing development in North America. It is most known for its hip hop roots with many famous rappers calling it their home. From legends Marley Marl (who made the classic "The Bridge"), MC Shan, Roxanne Shante, and Craig G...to more recent names like Nas, Mobb Deep, and Capone-N-Noreaga. But thank you Ron Artest for bringing it to a whole 'nother level of recognition.

3. Have a happy and safe Memorial Day weekend everyone.

Thanks for reading this week.

- bypremier

You Don't Know Jack...

Welcome to my new column: You don’t know Jack.

(Sidenote: I was debating between Jack in the box, Jacked up, and Jack off; before going with ‘You don’t know Jack’. Because you don’t. He lives in Connecticut.)

Jack said...

Thank you for your insightful response. The truth is, many fans can't stand from an objective point of view. i.e. I hate Kobe, but I would never claim that he sucks simply because he doesn't. I can appreciate his talent, but I don't like his character.

A friend of mine was appalled and disgusted by Paul Pierce's comment and made it known on facebook. His facebook status now tallied over 60 comments and counting.

Within those comments, we touched on a subject that falls under a grayscale and I would be interested to see your point of view on this one.

Do you think an athlete should be judged by their athleticism alone, or does their moral character play a role? i.e. the Tiger Woods scandal.

bypremier responds...

Ah, the age old question…does character matter when we judge star athletes? It’s a tough question to answer, because the honest answer should be, “No, it shouldn’t”. Athletes are human just like anybody else. They are not perfect. They make mistakes. And in the famous words of Charles Barkley, “I am not your role model.”

Yet, nothing could be further from the truth. As a society, we look up to our favorite athletes. We believe that with that god given talent and fortune, they have a greater responsibility to the world (or at least…to us fans, that root for them). They are supposed to play exceptionally well, carry themselves with a sense of dignity and sportsmanship, be charitable, respectful, save lives, rescue cats stuck in trees…basically they are expected to be perfect. Much like how we hold our Presidents to a higher standard (helloooooo, Bill Clinton). But then we find out that they cheat on their wives or girlfriends, take performance enhancing drugs, that they curse, spit, buy expensive things with their money instead of helping out the needy, drink, smoke, fight…basically all the bad things they teach you in church. And suddenly, it’s like they did these things to us. But is that fair? Who are we to judge? Most of us are no better and are guilty of the same things. So where does that leave us? Depends on which side you fall.

In one corner you have the athletes: The ones who never asked for that responsibility and just want to play sports.

Then you have the fans in the other corner: The ones who wished it was them that were on that court/field/ring. The ones who pay good money…hard earned money…to watch these athletes. Who bring their kids to watch them too. And they want their money’s worth and then some. And those kids…they want to believe that these athletes are everything their imagination leads them to believe.

So who is right? You’re not going to like my answer…but I say the athletes are. They should have the right to choose to do what they want and we have the right to like them or not. We should only judge them for their ability to play and perform at the highest level. We watch Tiger, so we can see greatness on the golf course. So what if he cheats. Statistics say a majority of people cheat as well. That makes a majority of us hypocrites. Is Tiger stupid…absolutely! Did he lie and ruin a good thing…sure. But who cares. It’s his life. He’ll still be considered one of the greatest golfers ever. Same goes with Kobe, Big Ben (although he belongs in jail…if he actually raped that woman), and all the other villains the media writes about everyday. If you don’t like it, then don’t be a fan of theirs and don’t buy their merchandise. And if you choose to turn off the TV or stop following them, well…all you risk if missing out on greatness. But at the end of the day, as the great NFL writer Peter King once said, “The criteria for the NFL Hall of Fame is for what they did on the field, not what they did off of it.”

Sure, there are exceptions. Some people relish that responsibility and do good deeds with their fortune and fame. Think of the Tim Tebows of the world. But then again, a lot of it is media created. The 24/7 news cycle forces people to create an image and try to maintain some sort of privacy in their lives. But this part is a whole nother argument for another day.

Jack, hopefully that answered your question. And I hope you don’t mind me shamefully using you as material for my blog.

In closing I would like to say…WTF??? 60 comments? I wish I could get 60 comments to something I write. Heck, I’d settle for 6.

How to Run a Successful Yard Sale:

“Your trash is my treasure.”

- Nick Serrano

I never fully understood that phrase until two weekends ago.

Yes, that's right readers...yours truly experienced his first ever yard sale. And I’m still trying to figure out what happened.

Did you know that almost everything you ever thought of throwing out or donating, someone else will pay money for? Not a lot of money. But they will pay. Ohhhhh, they’ll pay. But only if you do it right. And I’m going to tell you how with these five easy steps:

1. You ever see “Glenngarry Glen Ross”? Great movie. One of the best lines in the movie is when Alec Baldwin says, “A-B-C, A-Always, B-Be, C-Closing. Always be closing, always be closing.” Well you need one of these sellers. Fortunately for us, we had one: My girlfriend’s sister - Janet. She could sell a water bottle to someone already drinking out of one. She could sell you size 24 jeans if you could barely squeeze into size 36’s. You got kids? Well you need a used stuffed animal. You got hardwood floors? Here are some nasty, used slippers for those cold winter nights. What’s that?? Your boy needs a new shirt? Take this “Beer is Best” t-shirt. Sure your boy is only twelve, but the shirt fits him perfectly. The lesson here…Always Be Closing. No matter what.
2. You think people are above stealing from a yard sale? You are wrong. They will steal from a homeless man if they can get away with it. That’s why you need security. And I’m not talking about the bouncer types sitting outside your favorite clubs or the bodyguards protecting the most famous celebs. All you need is a guy standing by the sidewalk with his feet shoulder width apart and arms crossed. That’s it. If he has on dark sunglasses, that’ll provide added fear.
3. Do a group yard sale. Everyone has crap to get rid of. Better yet; everyone has different, random stuff (this adds to variety of inventory). Split up the tables and the yard and no matter what, your yard sale will look packed. For example, our yard sale was shared between three different groups consisting of eight people. That meant at anytime, there were at least eight people standing around. And that’s HUGE...because people will feel awkward stopping by a yard sale if they are the only ones there. It’s like walking into one of those local shops on any popular tourist area (Times Square, Canal St., etc) but you’re the only one there. You’re more prone to leave without buying anything. Because just like those local shops that you find on every corner, there is a yard sale on every other block. There were at least three yard sales that we knew of in a ten block radius. But those were empty and the people selling were bored out of their mind. Why? Because it looked like a ghost town. If you can’t get other people to do the yard sale with you, or are just selfish and don’t like to share, then at least get friends to stop by and hang out. That gives off the same appearance.
4. Bring a dog. Doesn't even have to be yours. Dogs attract crowds. Once the crowd comes, you go into seller mode and drop step #1 on them. See how I brought that back full circle.
5. Offer free stuff. People love free stuff. You know how many people will wait outside in the freezing cold for free movie tickets…hundreds of people. You know how many people will wait to get into the MOMA for free on Fridays? Put it this way, don’t even bother to go unless you plan on getting there very early. You want to hold a training session or a conference at work? Just offer free food and the people will come. It really is that simple. You don’t even need anything fancy…just some homemade lemonade or iced tea and some munchkins. And like Field of Dreams, “The people will come.”
   (Sidenote: I was thinking of pulling a Crazy Eddie's and parking my car in the front and offering to sell it too. Even joking that if you bought enough merchandise, you get the car for free. Of course, I didn't. Instead I offered my friends house if you bought enough jewelry. Heck, it wasn't my house...)

So there you go. Five easy steps and you’ll be raking in more singles than Kraft. Bad joke? Well someone sell me that bad joke book you got as a gift a long time ago. Boom…lesson #1.

A comment...and my Response

Jack said...
I would have to say that Shrek 4 was not a dissapointment. They continued to fire intelligent humor, with impeccable references to the fairytales we all grew up with. Its kind of sad to see that they are finally doing away with this series.

Talking about doing away with this series, what is your take on Pierce's comment about a possible sweep after Game 2? As a Celtic fan, I felt that he was just reassuring the Boston fans that they will not blow this, considering the Celtics had a pretty bad season defending home games.

BYPREMIER, do you think that one should hate a team just because of the city they are located in. i.e.: Boston Celtics. As a met fan, or a yankee fan, do you despise the Celtics because they are located in Boston? Isn't that a bit ignorant?


BYPREMIER: Jack, thank you for being one of my most frequent commenters.

Friday estimates are in for Shrek 4 and it looks like it only made $20.8mm. That should lead to roughly $65mm for the weekend, which would be a disappointment by any industry experts account. That means people were not excited to see another Shrek and the third entry in the franchise definitely left a bad taste in people's mouth. However, the movie did score an A grade on Cinemascore, which could lead to good word of mouth and strong legs throughout the summer. So it remains to be seen whether the movie does well or not. And never say never...no movie franchise is ever officially over.

I didn't think Pierce's comments were that bad. For those who aren't familiar, Pierce's twitter account tweeted, "Anybody got a BROOM". Pierce has denied writing this and said his account was hacked. In addition, after game 2...Pierce looked into the camera and said we're coming home to close it out. People were upset - Doc Rivers wanted them to stay hubmle. I think Pierce spoke the truth. They were going home for 2 games. You want to win and close out the series at home and not give Orlando any glimmer of hope. Should he have kept his mouth shut? Debatable...you never want to give the other team bulletin board material. But it's not like he said, "Orlando is finished." or planning for the NBA finals already. Nowadays, people are told to say the cliche responses to questions. Pierce didn't give one of those responses, which is why he got in hot water. But I'm fine with what Pierce said.

On your last question, it depends on what kind of fan you are. If you are a die hard fan, then you are taught and brought up to believe that you have to hate the enemies (i.e. any rivals of your home team). You can't like the Celtics if you are a Lakers fan. Is it ignorant? Absolutely! But sports is filled with ignorance and rash thinking and comments. It comes with the nature of being a true sports fan. You love them one day, then hate them the next. But me personally, I don't hate any team. I like the Mets, Knicks, and Giants. I can appreciate greatness like the Yankees, Celtics, Colts. But when they play against my home team, then I have to root for my team.

Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/21/10

1. Rumor has it the Sex and the City 2 premiere in New York City will be on Monday, May 24th at Radio City Music Hall. All the stars will be there and everyone will be dressed in their finest Manolo’s, Jimmy Choo’s, and Louboutins. But good luck trying to get a ticket - looks like it is open to industry insiders only.

2. More LeBron follow-up:

My buddy, Danny, make the excellent parallel that if LeBron leaves Cleveland then he’ll become the NBA version of A-rod. A supremely talented athlete, that could go down as arguably one of the best 5-10 players ever, yet is seen as more of a villain than a beloved icon. Throw in the possibility that both jump to the biggest market (NY) to get their championship title(s). I’m not saying they are exactly the same, but it’s an interesting parallel.

3. Pursuing the dream:

A co-worker of mine told me about a friend who was screening a movie ("lbs") he worked on. You could call it a decade long passion project. One that was started in 2002, finished after 27 months of filming, premiered at the Cannes Film Festival - where it won one of the prizes, only to not get any distributors, and find itself still trying to find an interested movie studio eight years later. It’s a sad story that so many hopeful artists live through. I wish these people could catch a break and see their dreams come true, but I’m probably more sympathetic to these dreamers. It’s a hard life to try to live when you want to accomplish something only 1% of the population and I have so much respect and admiration for those who continue to pursue despite all the negativity and roadblocks in their way.

I have another friend who has been trying his hand at acting for almost ten years now, and a guy who quit his job to pursue his dream of being a comedian. Both are struggling. But both are also happy doing what they do. If only they could make a decent living off that.

4. How to fix the Mets:

In a span of three weeks, the Mets have gone from first place to last place. You know things are bad as a Mets fan when you wish you were as good as the Washington Nationals. It’s been tough to watch. And based on attendance and ticket sales, it seems it’s been so tough that people don’t even bother watching anymore. The new stadium is not even two years old…that’s a bit early to start having empty seats. Seriously, the team has way too much talent (not to mention a ridiculously high payroll) to be a last place team floundering two games below .500. But it can be salvaged. Here’s how:

Settle on a lineup Jerry! Every freakin day Jerry Manuel has a new lineup in there. The guy can’t even stay with a single cleanup hitter, going with the likes of Mike Jacobs and Chris Carter. And what a bad idea it was to hit Jose Reyes third…Reyes is not Hanley Ramirez. It’s really not rocket science Jerry. Here’s your lineup: Reyes, Castillo/Cora, Wright, Bay, Ike Davis, Pagan, Francouer, Barajas, Pitcher.

Injuries aside, the pitching staff should be: Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, and Maine. Niese is currently on the DL, so you can have Takahashi hold down the fort until he gets back. Valdez was halfway decent filling in for Maine, so he can hold it down too for now. Problem with Takahashi and Valdez is they probably can’t go longer than 5 innings, since they were used to pitching out of the bullpen. But we’ll just have to scrape something together and tax the bullpen even more. The rumored plan is for young stud, Jennry Meija, to extend his pitch count so he can start (that could take up to a month or two). I think that’s a horrible idea, because it will most certainly ruin his young arm. At this point, I wouldn’t hold out hope for Maine to figure out his stuff either. But whatever we do, do not start Oliver Perez. He is the win streak stopper, the losing streak prolonger. He sucks!!!!!!

What happened to Bobby Parnell? He was our 8th inning guy last year…he can’t possibly be worse than Manny Acosta (true, he sucked in spring training and the minors). Bring him up to fill in the bullpen spots opened up by Takahashi and/or Meija/Valdez starting. The bullpen will need all the available arms it can get. Good thing Igarashi is returning soon.

Cut Gary Matthews Jr. He’s not a good pinch hitter and I’d rather have Pagan start every day.

Get a sports psychologist for David Wright and Jose Reyes. Something’s not right with either guy.

Find a heart and soul of the team. The Mets play without any sense of urgency, understanding of the moment, or resiliency. They press way too much. They are the anti-Phillies. This is not something easily done obviously, it’ll require new players and management…but the players on the roster need to look hard in the mirror and rediscover the magic.

5. Shrek Forever After: The Final Chapter opens this weekend

Reviews seem to be in line with Shrek the Third. Not sure what to expect. It’ll open at #1, but will it break $100m? With 3D prices and little competition for family audiences, probably…It’s sad though, because the first two were very good movies. I guess this is what would happen if Pixar ever milked a franchise to death (which could very well happen with Toy Story 3). Guess that’s the biggest difference between Pixar and Dreamworks Animation.

6. NBA Playoffs:

Are we looking at another set of sweeps? What a bunch of crappy playoff rounds. So far Orlando has been outmatched by Rondo and the big 3 and Phoenix can’t guard the Lakers big men (Gasol is killing them). As stated in my podcast interview (which can be found on this blog), I still hope for the Suns to make a comeback and win in 7. Orlando will win one game, but Boston looks to be in complete control. Guess we’re all headed for Boston vs. LA.

Magic is already giving interviews and offering to do another montage filled halftime special with Larry Bird.

7. BBQ’s:

It’s almost that time of the year - Summer BBQ season…and I can’t wait. There’s nothing better than some chicken wings, hot dogs, burgers, and if you’re high class…ribs and a little bul-go-ki.

Question – anybody know how to bbq chicken wings without burning them? I always end up charcoaling the skin and then ripping it off.

8. Congrats to Navid and Emily on their engagement. Sorry I couldn’t make it to the party. But I saw the video tape. Amazing job on the camera Scotty Watts.

Fantasy Football Preview: May 2010

You know my motto; it’s never too early to talk fantasy football. And since May means only three more months before drafts start happening, I think that’s plenty of time to give you my award winning advice.

First off, Rotoworld has previewed its early mock draft. Some interesting points stand out.

• Aaron Rodgers is the new #1 fantasy QB; leapfrogging Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. With an improved offensive line (expect first round draft pick Bryan Buluga to step right in and have a positive impact), I can’t disagree with this argument. Of course, there is always a chance that this is the year Donald Driver starts to show his age. But Jermichael Finley is projected to make the leap and become a Dallas Clark/Antonio Gates like TE threat. Throw in another solid year for Greg Jennings and a nasty third WR in James Jones, and the only hope of stopping this offensive juggernaut is injuries.
• Chris Johnson is the clear cut #1 RB and player overall. However, the threat of holdout does scare me (and I have him as a potential keeper – oh who am I kidding, I’m not keeping him). As mentioned by my two knowledgeable friends, Navid and Scotty Watts, this could play out like Emmitt Smith when he held out for the first two games before finally getting his money.
• MJD over AP for the #2 spot. This is a tossup. Both are no worse than the third fantasy RB/player overall. Sherm is going to have a difficult decision to make. Kind of like when he has to decide whether or not to wear that sweater vest or not.
  
• The obvious #1 fantasy WR looks to be Andre Johnson, but he too is threatening a hold out. With five years left on his contract, I don’t see this one turning out well for AJ. Reminds me of Anquan Boldin’s situation with the Cardinals the last couple of years. Still no reason to knock Andre down though. He’s still better than Megatron, B-Marshall, Fitz, and Reggie Wayne.

Secondly, Peter King came out with his preliminary ranking of the top 32 teams. Here are my thoughts:

• It is important to note that the super bowl winner always has a difficult follow up season (see no further than Pittsburgh Steelers circa last year). And I expect New Orleans to face similar difficulties. No Drew Brees won’t be getting into any legal trouble, and he’ll still be a top 3 fantasy QB (4,500 yards and 30 TD’s), but from a fantasy perspective - I’d be wary of the New Orleans defense. If you based your defensive rankings on last year’s stats (never a wise thing to do by the way), you’ll have New Orleans being one of the first few taken off the board. But I feel a letdown coming on this year. The unit will miss Scott Fujita. No way does Darren Sharper have the same impact in year two. Same goes for Gregg Williams. The unit will be a bye week replacement and no better. On the plus side, expect a breakout year for Robert Meachem. And a fully healthy season from Pierre Thomas.
  
• Also, there has been at least a 50 percent turnover in the playoff teams. Expect no different this year. Let’s take a look at the difference between 2008 and 2009.
• 2008 playoff teams: Atlanta, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tennessee, New York Giants, Carolina, Pittsburgh
• 2009 playoff teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans.
• Basically 2009 saw the NYJ, Cincy, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans account for the turnover. From a fantasy perspective that meant surprising bounceback performances from players like Chad OchoCinco and Laurence Maroney, breakout performances from players like Cedric Benson, Miles Austin, Jermichael Finley, and Robert Meachem, and five of those defensive units were every week starters.
• The teams that fell out of the playoffs were Atlanta, Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Fantasy wise; this saw a decline in stats from Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Kerry Collins, Tennessee Defense, Brandon Jacobs, NYG Defense, Jake Delhomme, Willie Parker, and the Pittsburgh Defense. If you had any of those players, chances are you didn’t do too well.
• What does that mean? Well, if you have a prediction on which teams will make the jump, then you could be in luck with striking fantasy gold. Personally; I think New Orleans, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and New England are in trouble. My forecast for this year’s surprise playoff bound teams: Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Carolina, San Francisco, Washington, and Oakland. Yes, I said Oakland.
• Key players from these respective teams (other than the obvious – i.e. Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart, etc.): Chad Henne, Brian Hartline, Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, Detroit Defense, Matt Moore, Michael Crabtree, Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis, Clinton Portis, Darren McFadden, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schillens.
  

I would call this a tease, but I write way too much. Until June 2010…

The countdown to the draft has begun.

The Invention of Random Thoughts

For the loyal ten readers out there, by now you have probably noticed that every week I write a column called "Weekly Random Thoughts". Now despite popular belief, I did not invent random thoughts. The true story behind the invention of random thoughts is a complex and fascinating story:

It all began in the olden days of yore. There once lived an important and well known man named Sir Jonathan Bartholomew Rand (known to his friends as simply "Rand"). He was a man of stellar upbringings with a very important position within the community. Yet, he was not the brightest man. Nor was he the most eloquent speaker. Often times, mostly during pressing issues and other important matters, people in the town would ask him, "Rand, what are your thoughts?". But he would always reply, "Um". It became such a common occurance that many would joke that "Rand has um thoughts". As the years passed, the legend of Sir Jonathan Bartholomew Rand grew and the phrase, "Rand has um thoughts", became a popular saying for anyone that didn't know how to respond to a question. With the invention of slang, this became "Rand um thoughts" for short. Then with the invention of accents (thus causing mispronouciation), "Rand um thoughts" became "Random thoughts". With the advent of ESL classes, "Random thoughts" became defined as "the act or product of thinking in a haphazard way".

And that is how random thoughts was invented.

You won't learn that in Dave Allocco's History class. You're welcome.

Podcast: 5/14/2010

Listen to the latest podcast featuring my buddy Brock (http://BrockAngeles.tumblr.com) and I. We touch on the NBA playoffs, Lebron James, Iron Man 2, and the Mets.

http://cbrock723.podbean.com/

As always, thanks for listening and spread the word!

Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/14/10

Many of my female readers tell me that they can’t relate to what I write about. They don’t get the sports aspect of it, some don’t get the movie stuff either, and so they don’t want to read through for the one time I write about a broad topic. In an effort to combat that problem I’ve decided to mix up my thoughts and try to jump from one sport related thought to a non-sport related though. Here goes:

1. In a surprising turn of events, the Boston Celtics handily beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in games 5 and 6 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. So we all know what that means, right? The question on everyone’s mind will now become “What will LeBron do?”My buddy Brock wrote up a good piece about this (http://brockangeles.tumblr.com/). I agree with most everything he says, but as an NBA die hard I really hope LeBron stays in Cleveland (and I’m a Knicks fan). Why? Because I think it sends the wrong message to all the people who look up to him. Nowadays, so many athletes/famous people do what is in their best interest. Rarely do you see someone who recognizes that with that talent and god given ability comes a certain responsibility to those who root for you and look up to you. And while my buddy Brock might reference Kevin Garnett (and what happened to him when he stayed too long and was too loyal to Minnesota) when arguing why LeBron should leave, I would say look at MJ. Everything worked out for him, but there was a point in time during the late 80’s when people doubted him. Maybe it was a different time, and if MJ were playing today, he’d pack his bags and sign with the team with the most money or the biggest market (then again Chicago is a bigger market than Cleveland – but that aside). But MJ didn’t do that. MJ pushed through and had to wait for his turn. And he had to work for it and earn it. The key for him was finding the right supporting cast (coach, management, and players to play with). LeBron arguably has none of that. Management might be trying, but they aren’t doing a good job. For example, I think they made the first wrong move in keeping Coach Mike Brown and the Shaq pickup was a horrible one. LeBron needs his Pippen and he needs his Phil Jackson.

Now; most people would say, “That’s a stupid argument to make.” - go for the money or go to the bigger market. There is no room for loyalty, being a nice guy, or worrying about anything but your legacy, your money, and your glory. In my opinion, these people are what is wrong with this world. They are the greedy, disloyal, and uncaring few. Because you know what, Lebron’s got plenty of money, a few million more won’t matter (and Cleveland can offer the largest contract). A championship is not guaranteed whether he stays or leaves, so who is to say he’ll win in Chicago, Miami, Dallas, or New York. And he’ll gain some more “home” fans, but lose Cleveland fans just like Brett Favre lost many Green Bay fans when he left. But what do I know…maybe I argue this because I’d like to believe I am a loyal person: Loyal to my friends, family, and loved ones. So maybe it’s a good thing, I don’t have to make the decision. And I’m kind of glad I don’t have to.

Another thought…nobody has an idea what Lebron will do. And maybe he wants it that way. Because if you don’t know who Lebron James is by now, you will know who he is over the course of the summer.

Lastly, in trying to think of the proper comparisons for what Cleveland and LeBron will go through I could only think of a few examples of current players:

If Derek Jeter left New York before winning a world series. Jeter grew up in New York, was drafted by New York, and is the embodiment of home grown. Say he came close a few years and then decided to bolt for another team (say the Boston Red Sox).

If Tim Tebow was drafted by Jacksonville, became a great QB, went to many playoff games, but never won a super bowl…and then leaves for New England.

If Sidney Crosby were drafted by a Canadian team (Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, or Edmonton), didn’t lead them to a championship before leaving for Detroit or Chicago.

2. Twice I’ve bought gifts for my girlfriend where the counter person said something in the form of, “Women would die/kill for this!” Seriously…I better watch my back. Otherwise you all might see a front page story that says, “Yeung man killed for pair of shoes and luxury face cream.”

3. Worse second round NBA playoff series ever?

Let’s recap: Three four game sweeps. A few good close games, but no upsets in those series sweeps (Lakers vs. Jazz has a good one, Suns vs. Spurs has a good one too). Only one series that went six games, but none of those six games were decided by less than 8 points. Pretty much the two most memorable moments of the second round series were Steve Nash playing with one eye in game four and finally beating the Spurs, and the LeBron James stinkbomb that was thrown up in game five. Let’s hope for better conference finals.

4. I don’t normally link to other sites, but my friend Rich sent me this video yesterday. Wait for the end to see what the anchor says.

a. http://www.abc26.com/news/local/wgno-beauty-breakthroughs-g-shot,0,2355202.story
b. PS – My new goal in life is to find a reason to say this to someone with a straight face.

5. Fantasy baseball review:

Who is Tyler Clippard? He’s a Washington Nationals reliever with a 7-1 record on the year. That basically means he’s headed for 30 wins or 8 wins for the whole season. My guess is on something close to the latter, but I’d still rather have him than most closers.

Not sure if Jose Contreras will pick up saves or even pitch well, but he’s got SP eligibility in Yahoo! if you wanted to throw in six relievers with save potential in your roster on any given day.

Not sure if you can say Matt Kemp is better than Andre Eithier right now. Eithier is playing out of his mind.

6. Last week’s recap

Iron Man 2 made only $128mm last weekend, which was pretty disappointing if you ask me. I thought it’d clear $145-150mm no problem (and only $7.5mm on midnight showings Friday morning). I’d say it was headed for a $350mm final tally. The one thing it has working for it is little competition; Robin Hood looks like a bomb – more on that later, Shrek 4 and SATC 2 will open big, but the wild card is Prince of Persia. I have a feeling that Iron Man 2 will end up being the second highest grossing movie of the summer.

I was way off on my NBA playoff predictions. I predicted two game 7 series, there wasn’t even one! I thought San Antonio would win 2 at home, instead they lost both. At least I was right about Orlando…

In my list of potential summer jams, I should have included “Taio Cruz feat. Ludacris – Break Your Heart”. In the words of Chris Rock, “That’s a catchy ass song.”

I hope you all watched Friday Night Lights – the season premiere was well done (not great, but a good solid episode). I see the beginning of some fantastic story lines and predict this is going to be a great season. The best since the fantastic first season. Also, the Vince character will be the new Matt Saracen – the one character you root for that surprises you with his football ability and his heart. One more thing, you cannot listen to that opening theme song and not be inspired. How the guitar strings hums along so quietly at the beginning, then the music picks up right around when the names “Taylor Kitsch” and “Jesse Plemons” appear in the credits. Whew. It gets me every time.

7. By catching an early screening of Iron Man 2 (w/o trailers), I missed the new teaser for J.J. Abrams new flick, Super 8. All I can say is I have no idea what to expect, it had me at Spielberg, and Abrams can put together a teaser trailer better than anyone in the business (see Cloverfield and Star Trek).

8. Robin Hood looks headed for the award of first box office bomb of the summer. I predicted this in my summer movie preview (go ahead, check it out. It’s in the archive). Robin Hood won’t recoup its budget domestically (estimated to be around $155mm), but it’ll do well overseas. These types of movies always do.

9. If you are looking to me for movie advice, well then watch Fantastic Mr. Fox – it’s a great movie with snappy dialogue and amazing visuals. Fair warning, the movie is in stop motion animation. But to me, that makes it all the more incredible.

10. Congrats to my friend, Navid (aka “The Champ”) on graduating from med school.

And my friend, Sean McBride, will be performing two nights at Caroline’s Comedy Club (Monday, May 17th @9:30pm and Wednesday, May 19th @ 9:30pm). He’s one of the funniest guys I know and puts on a great act. Go check him out if you are in the area and like to laugh (and who doesn’t?).

Thanks for reading this week. Have a great weekend. I promise to write something for the ladies, maybe a Sex and the City 2 review.

Why I Created A Blog

The world needs many things. One of them is not another blog to take up space and your time. I've always felt that way and been reluctant to start writing a blog. I never considered it a true writing artform. You want to write something - go write a play, or a book, or a screenplay. So that's what I did.

To give you a little history, I figured out I wanted to write about ten years ago. It started out as a daily journal. That grew into my first completed screenplay (admittedly, a poorly written one). One screenplay led to the start of another. And dreams of being a writer led to me quitting my job to pursue it full time. As reality hit, I rejoined the working world and slowly stopped writing. Somewhere along the way, I began writing a column for 13 friends in a fantasy football league. But I only did that for three months out of the year. The rest of the time, I stopped writing. My second attempt at a screenplay was left unfinished. And writing became something I told people I enjoyed doing, but didn't actually do. Because a passion for something that is not your job, becomes a hobby. And a hobby becomes something that you do when you can. But life will always give you excuses. You're too tired, too lazy, or it's too late (Marc, I got this one for you..."That's what she said"). So you don't write anymore and you just complain about not being able to write. For me, the person I complained to the most was my girlfriend. And so, for Christmas she bought me a netbook. The card attached said simply, "Now you don't have an excuse why you can't write".

And for quite some time, friends and loved ones have been encouraging me to write a blog. But fear and uncertainty took over.

"What do I name it?"

"Who would even read it?"

"What am I writing about?"

After four months of not using the netbook for its intended purpose, while trying to answer those questions, I finally decided to take the leap and "throw myself into the fire". Ultimately, I decided the answer to those questions is "Whatever I want", "Write good stuff and people will read", and "Whatever I want". So I simply started writing and hoped I'd figure things out along the way.

Will this blog lead to anything? I don't know. Will people read it and enjoy it? So far, only a select few. But I know that I've rediscovered the reason why I enjoyed writing so much in the first place. I think about my blog constantly. And it provides some fulfillment in my life that I can't get from work or anywhere else. So for that; I want to thank my wonderful girlfriend (I love you), my friends for their support, and you out there in cyberspace for reading.

In retrospect, this would have probably been a good idea for my first blog entry. But if I had any clue about what I'm doing, then I wouldn't have taken two months to think of a blog name...

How to win your fantasy football league.

It’s almost that time of the year. Fantasy football season baby!! In a month or so, the 2010 fantasy football magazines will start appearing at a newsstand near you. So prepare for lots of rankings, sleepers, busts, keepers, and my personal favorite…the experts guide on how to win your league. And as a so-called expert (I have finished last, 12th, 10th, 6th twice, 3rd, and 2nd in my fantasy football league), I get this question asked to me all the time. So without further ado, here’s my guide on how to win your FF league.

1. Find a group of 9-13 people who think football is that sport with the World Cup. If they don’t speak English, even better.

2. Anoint yourself treasurer of said league. Collect “fees” upfront.

3. Set up a date and time to do a live draft – preferably at an abandoned building or warehouse.

4. Find your old fantasy football magazines (preferably ones with Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, or Ahman Green on the cover). Give them out to your fellow league members as prep material.

5. Buy a draft board without the named stickers – instead buy blank stickers so you have to write in the names yourself. That way there is no confusion when someone can’t find that Jerry Rice sticker.

6. Hire scantily clad females to walk around during your live draft - thus distracting your fellow league members.

7. After each one of your league members makes a pick - say sarcastically, “Wow, that’s a great pick.” For example. With the first pick, Rich picks “Shaun Alexander”. You reply, “Wow, that’s a great pick”.

8. Wish everyone good luck. Change your phone number, email address, and move.

9. Repeat steps 1-8 above.

Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/7/10

1. I went to see Cirque Du Soleil: Ovo last weekend. It was my first time ever seeing a Cique Du Soleil show or visiting Randall’s Island for that matter. I thought it was a very good show. Some really awesome sections and some few slow spots. Either way, I’d highly recommend it unless you’ve seen the other Cirque Du Soleil shows (which I heard once you’ve seen one, you don’t see anything new). Some thoughts/questions:

• a. My first thought when I saw all the performers was of the character Yen in the Oceans movies. I love Ocean’s Eleven.
• b. There was a part where one performer was standing on one hand atop what looked like a mini-staircase without the stairs. It was definitely an impressive showing of balance and strength. But by the fourth time the person was doing it, it got kind of boring. Then again, I can barely stand up on one leg, so who am I to talk.
• c. The six jugglers/twirlers (with the big plastic kiwis and pieces of corn) were one of the highlights of the show. Yet, I kept hoping that one of them would drop the kiwi or the corn. Yes, behind my nice guy act I am a horrible person.
• d. The acrobats (or Robin’s as I like to call them) were cool, but nobody went flying across the entire stage. So I was a little disappointed. That dude Yen from Ocean’s Eleven would have totally went across the stage. Heck, Chris O’Donnell would have too.
• e. The crowd interaction part was very funny. Most people hate being picked out of the audience and made center of attention. I know I do. Actually, I only know one person who loves to be picked for this kind of stuff. His name is Sean McBride…he’s a comedian. Youtube him.
• f. The rock climbing/trampoline section ended the show on a high note.
• g. I wonder how many hours a day these people train?
• h. And I wonder how much the performers get paid?

2. Hugo Weaving has officially been cast as the new villain, Red Skull, in the upcoming Marvel film, The First Avenger: Captain America. If you don’t know who Hugo Weaving is by name, well you definitely know the face or voice. He played Agent Smith in the Matrix trilogy, was the voice of Megatron (not Calvin Johnson, relax Scotty Watts) in the Transformers movies, and was also in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Since the Matrix premiered in 1999, Weaving has been in 14 movies (most recently “The Wolfman” remake). Those 14 movies have grossed $2.68bn in domestic box office, which averages out to $191.3mm per film (and that’s including 3 low budget movies that made less than $150k each). That’s Will Smith/Tom Hanks/Tom Cruise territory. But of course Weaving would never be referred to as an A-lister (a guy who could open up a movie himself). He’s basically this decade’s Jeff Goldblum. Goldblum, if you remember, was the co-star of such hits in the 1990’s as Jurassic Park, Independence Day, and The Lost World. Goldblum was the go to supporting actor for big budget films and he did it masterfully. As my friend, Jay the comedian would say - I miss Jeff Goldblum.

3. Every summer there are a few songs that tear up the radio waves and become the unofficial summer jam. Last year it was Keri Hilson, Drake, Lady GaGa, and Black Eyed Peas. It’s early, but so far my prediction for the summer jam of 2010 are:

• a. Usher feat. Will.i.am – omg
• b. Travis McCoy feat. Bruno Mars – billionaire
• c. B.O.B. feat Bruno Mars - Nuttin on You (or the new song “Airplanes”)
• d. Other artists with songs coming out soon (I haven’t heard them yet) – Eminem, Katy Perry, T-Pain, Christina Aguilera, Drake, Pitbull, Miley Cyrus, and M.I.A.

4. Some small, low budget indie film called “Iron Man 2” comes out today. Apparently the reviews have been worse than the first one (generally in the C-B/2 star range). And after having some time to digest the movie (I wrote a blog entry about it – you should read it) and reading the reviews, I can see why people think it is only an OK movie. I was probably swayed by the crowd and atmosphere when I saw the early preview. Still worth watching though. It’s a fun movie that is the essence of good popcorn flicks.

5. Last week’s random thoughts recap:

• a. Nightmare makes only $32mm. It’ll be lucky if finishes with $65mm.
• b. Met’s blow the Philly series and show no resiliency. But at least they didn’t get swept.
• c. I was 3-0 in my NBA playoff predictions – Atlanta came back and won games 6 and 7. Utah and L.A. both closed out in game 6.
• d. The answer is that you do not say “Bless You”.
  

6. NFL Draft (rounds 2 – 7) fantasy preview: I did my review of the round one NFL draft and its fantasy impact last week. Well, here are some non-first rounder’s that may have fantasy potential this year.

• a. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – Probably won’t get many carries behind Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, but could see time lined up in the slot. He’s a good pass catcher, but probably won’t get enough looks to warrant drafting (barring injury to Charles/Jones). Then again, he could be Reggie Bush-like.
• b. Jimmy Clausen, Panthers – A good chance to start at some point in the season if Matt Moore fails to produce. Could have a similar first year to Jay Cutler - start by week ten or so, show promise, but ultimately not fantasy worthy unless in keeper leagues.
• c. Toby Gerhart, Vikings – A good downhill runner that grinds the yards out. Expected to take on role left by Chester Taylor, but not an excellent pass catcher. Not sure how he gets carries playing behind Adrian Peterson. Could be a fullback. See Jacob Hester.
• d. Colt McCoy, Browns – Probably won’t see the field this year, but he has a chance to be the best of this year’s QB crop. Has a little Drew Brees in him.
• e. Joe McKnight, Jets – Made Leon Washington expendable. Expect him to be used in change of pace and pass catching situations, but will fight Tomlinson for those. Won’t be fantasy worthy this year, but down the road has a chance to be like Leon.
• f. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – Stuck behind Mendenhall, but Pittsburgh has always employed more than one RB (think Mewelde Moore). Dwyer could play a similar role as a change of pace/pass catching back. But Mendenhall will still be the workhorse.
• g. Anthony Dixon, 49ers – Another RB rookie the 49ers hope to relieve some of the workload from Frank Gore. Not sure if Dixon will make much of an impact, but the 49ers do have a solid, rebuilt offensive line. Keep an eye out for him as a late rounder.
• h. Mardy Gilyard, Rams – Has a little DeSean Jackson in him. Could be a threat to break out a long TD catch or run at any moment, but won’t see many catches (hurting value in PPR leagues). Could develop a nice connection with Bradford for years to come.
• i. Ben Tate, Texans – Could immediately step in and be the starting RB for the Texans. In that offense, if he takes the job, he has a chance to be more fantasy relevant than CJ Spiller.
• j. Damian Williams, Titans - Hoping to follow in Kenny Britt’s footsteps as a promising rookie WR for the Titans. But Titans are still a running team and Williams might not garner enough attention to warrant any consideration yet. Could be fantasy worthy toward the end of the season, so keep an eye out.
• k. Jimmy Graham, Saints – a TE prospect that could fit in nicely with the dynamic New Orleans offense. May not be relevant this year, but Shockey won’t be there forever. Could be a stud TE in a few years.
• l. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Possibly the answer to New England’s TE problems. But we all know that New England spreads the ball around and TE’s are either hit or miss (see Ben Watson).
• m. Montario Hardesty, Browns – Could be the starting RB for the Browns (they don’t believe in Harrison). Will struggle behind that rebuilding team, but could have some fantasy worth weeks. A decent mid-late round flier with keeper potential.
• n. Golden Tate, Seahawks – This year’s Percy Harvin. A jack of all trades. Expect to see a few wildcat packages – he’ll run, he’ll catch, maybe even pass and return kicks/punts. He’ll be worth a pickup as a WR3.
• o. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers – Steps into the best situation as a rookie WR, in that he has little competition. Could be the teams #1 WR on day one, which makes him fantasy relevant. But Josh Freeman is still a project and the team will not be known for its passing. A worthy bench player with upside.
  

7. Fantasy baseball update – My team is struggling, mainly because my offense sucks (I’m looking at you Justin Upton). But pitching is starting to come around (wish Grienke or Cliff Lee could actually get a win though). Here are my weekly thoughts:

• a. Tampa Bay has the best pitching staff (Garza, Shields, Price, and Niemann) right now – every one of those guys is top 20 right now.
• b. San Francisco has second best pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez) – best in the NL (with St. Louis a close second).
• c. Good to see David Wright turn it around after last year’s disappointing season – 7 HR’s so far (6 on the road) compared to only 10 last year. But he still strikes out too much and that average needs to go up in the .300 range.
• d. Alex Gonzalez is headed for a career year (Toronto can mash). Watch out for David Freese and Tim Stauffer as below the radar guys who are producing.
• e. Worst teams for fantasy players (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I could only find a handful of guys worth having (Matt Weiters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis (DL), Andrew McCutchen, and Evan Meek) and none of them are playing that well. At least Kansas City and Seattle have stud pitchers.
• f. Buy low candidates – Jason Bay, Prince Fielder, and Josh Beckett.
  

8. NBA playoffs update:

• a. After two games, only the Boston-Cleveland series is tied. That one could go seven.
• b. I expect San Antonio to win the next two at home. They won’t go down without a fight and they are one of the best teams at making adjustments. This one could go seven too.
• c. Utah doesn’t have enough to take down the Lakers…reminds me of the year’s that the Bulls struggled to beat the Pistons (back in the MJ/Isiah days). Utah will have to figure out how to get over the hump (i.e. The Lakers) in order to take the next step. But Deron is a top ten player right now.
• d. Atlanta doesn’t have enough to compete with Orlando. Magic might have easiest road to the conference finals of anyone (I’d be surprised if they lost more than one game along the way).

9. In this week’s edition of ignorance and intolerance:

• a. I went to the Museum of Natural History a while back. As I’m walking through, I pass by one of the staff members. For no reason, other than the obvious, he stops me to tell me that the Asia history section is on the third floor. Ummm…I wasn’t asking.
• b. Went to Bubba Gump restaurant in Times Square with my girlfriend and another couple. And the first question the hostess and waiter asked us was, “So where you visiting from?” Ummm…Queens!!!

10. Friday Night Lights season four starts tonight on NBC. If you aren't watching this show, then you are missing out on the best TV show on right now. "Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"...

Thanks for reading and don't forget to tell your friends.

2010 Summer Movie Preview: May

May is here!!!!! And for all those movie lovers out there, that means one of the two best times of the movie year is arriving (the other being holiday movie season from Thanksgiving to Christmas). That’s right…summer movie season kicks off on May 7th. Now with any summer movie slate, there are certain guarantees.

1. The kickoff weekend will be huge for whichever movie studio claims that weekend (See “Iron Man 2”. 2009 equivalent = “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”).

2. Plenty of big budget, special effects driven movies (See “Prince of Persia”, “The Sorcerers Apprentice” and "The Last Airbender". 2009 equivalent; the aforementioned “Wolverine”, "Transformer 2", "GI Joe", and "Star Trek").

3. Sequels, Threequels, Adaptations, Remakes, and Re-imaging’s galore (See “Iron Man 2”, “Sex and the City 2”, "Twilight Saga: Eclipse", and “A-Team”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”, “Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince”, “GI Joe”, “Angels and Demons”, Terminator Salvation”, and “Transformers 2”).

4. A couple of complete box office disasters (See “Jonah Hex” and “Prince of Persia”. 2009 equivalent “Bruno”, “Funny People”, “Year One” and “Land of the Lost”).

5. A couple of box office surprises (See “Splice” and "The Karate Kid". 2009 equivalent = “District 9).

6. At least one big budget movie will get great reviews and then go on to be a huge crowd favorite and make over $250mm at the box office - thus exceeding expectations (See “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”).

7. One unbelievable Pixar movie (See “Toy Story 3”. 2009 equivalent = “Up”).

8. One comedy that outshines all the others (usually starring Will Ferrell). (See ”The Other Guys”. 2009 equivalent = “The Hangover”)

9. A chick flick that serves as counter programming. (See “Sex and the City 2”, “Eat, Pray, Love”, and “Killers”. 2009 equivalent – “The Proposal”, “Julie and Julia”, “Ghost of Girlfriends Past”, and “The Ugly Truth”)

10. And one epic action movie – usually with a historical setting with a well known legendary figure. (See “Robin Hood”. 2009 equivalent – “Public Enemies”)

11. A family friendly movie, non-Pixar related. (See “Despicable Me” and “Cats and Dogs 2”. 2009 equivalent – “G-Force” and “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”).

12. One low budget indie that gets some Oscar buzz only to fizzle out at awards time. (See “The Kids Are Alright”, “happythankyoumoreplease”, and “Cyrus”. 2009 equivalent – “500 Days of Summer”)

Ok, let’s take a look at what movies will be taking our money and wasting our time:

MAY 2010:

Iron Man 2: Qualifies under #1, #2, and #3 above.
Opens: May 7th, 2010
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Mickey Rourke, Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Directed by: Jon Favreau

Are you ready for this because this is going to be huge? The only question is how huge. Sequels are usually hit or miss. Rarely are they better than the first, but thanks to the pent up demand, the second part usually opens bigger and sees a greater amount of grosses frontloaded. But once in a while, you get a movie that actually builds on the first one. One that is arguably better (see Terminator 2, Aliens, and The Dark Knight) and outgrosses the first one. There is no doubt that the movie is grossing $400mm (it’ll break $150mm on opening weekend). But if it’s as good as the trailers look, then it’ll crack $500mm easily and be the movie to beat for the summer box office crown.

Pros: Huge demand, must see status, awesome trailers, rumors of Captain America and Thor appearances.

Cons: Can it live up to the first one? Iron Man 2 didn’t have much to work off of from the comic book source material – so they had to make up a story based on a lot of different story lines in the comics. Throw in the fact that there are no well known villains, fan outrage over Scarlett Johansson casting, and you could see a semi-Iron Man backlash.

Robin Hood: Qualifies under #3 and #10
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, William Hurt.
Directed by: Ridley Scott

The team that brought you Gladiator brings you a film that will definitely be compared to Gladiator. My initial reaction to the trailers was, “Eh”. After seeing more trailers, my reaction is still “Eh”. I don’t know what to expect - just another sweeping epic with grand fighting scenes along the likes of “The Patriot”, “Kingdom of Heaven”, and “King Arthur” or a movie that tries to tell the true story behind the legend like last summer’s “Public Enemies” (And you know what, Public Enemies was pretty disappointing)? The filmmakers certainly hope that is not the case, since none of those films did extraordinarily well at the box office (and Kingdom of Heaven and King Arthur were bombs). So what does all that mean? Well, the film lies clearly on the shoulders of Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott. And neither is at the heights of their box office pull. Crowe isn’t the same star as he was after Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind. With State of Play bombing, he’s become less and less a draw. And Scott found little success with Body of Lies. Throw in the fact that the movie has to deal with the second weekend of Iron Man 2 and things don’t look so good. This could be the first box office bomb of the summer. I’m going to say it’ll end up with only $75mm gross.

Pros: The team of Crowe and Scott. Huge production values. Guaranteed to have one "F'ing awesome" fight scene involving a sword and/or bow and arrow.

Cons: Trailers that have failed to excite. Crowe at his box office lowest since "Virtuosity".

Letters to Juliet: Qualifies under #9
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Vanessa Redgrave, and Gael Garica Bernal.

A romantic comedy looking to serve up some counterprogramming to the big budget films Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood. It'll serve the audience looking for a sweet, romantic movie. Seyfried is an up and coming star (she was recently seen in "Dear John") and has her fans of young girls and even some young guys. Bernal (and his accent) has fans of young and old girls. And Redgrave could pull in some adults. But this movie has a limited potential (think "Leap Year" or "When In Rome") before finding an audience on cable and DVD. Final gross of $25mm.

Pros: The adorable Amanda Seyfried.

Cons: Not much seperates this movie from a thousand other romantic films.

Just Wright: Possibly qualifies under #5
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Common, Queen Latifah, and Paula Patton.

A romantic comedy starring a popular rapper playing outside his norm, and a popular actress/singer with a larger fan base than you would think. Throw in some basketball (perfect timing during the NBA playoffs) and a large African American cast (a fan base that will come out to support their own, as Tyler Perry has shown), and we could have our first surprising box office success. I could see this doing $40-45mm if it gets decent reviews.

Pros: Latifah has moderate success with these types of films (The Last Holiday - $39mm and Beauty Shop - $36mm). Counterprogramming in a summer full of films that don't cater to the African American audience.

Cons: Common as a basketball player? I guess it makes more sense than Bow Wow or Fredro Starr.


Shrek Forever After: Qualifies under #3.
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Featuring voices by: Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas, and Julie Andrews.

The animated series that is more successful than any Pixar franchise, yet not nearly as beloved (or good), returns for a fourth and (hopefully) final chapter. All the main characters return including the ogre Shrek, Princess Fiona, donkey, Puss N Boots, and the wonderful dragon (Parker’s favorite). Throw in a cute premise with Rumpelstiltskin and this may do better than the last entry in the franchise. However, the third Shrek left a bad taste in people’s mouth and some may have soured on the series. So expect a huge opening, say $90+mm before it finishes out around 270mm (matching the gross of the first Shrek). Of course, the key with any animated movie is the reviews. If it’s good, which I have yet to hear anything special about it (then again, I know nobody in the industry), then it could make a quality $300+mm total.

Pros: The Shrek franchise has made over $1bn at the box office. Plus; it's in 3D, which is all the rage these days.

Cons: The franchise is on its last legs. People weren't exactly screaming for a fourth one after Shrek the Third.

MacGruber: Qualifies under #4
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Starring: Will Forte, Kristin Wiig, Ryan Phillippe, and Val Kilmer

A halfway decent SNL skit was inexplicably turned into a summer action-comedy flick. This one has “A Night at the Roxbury” written all over it. Expect a lot of ridiculous jokes, gross out humor and violence, and some outlandish acting by Kilmer and Forte. The only way this goes beyond the core audience of SNL’ers is if Kilmer give such a crazy performance (which he is entirely capable of) that the movie becomes must see just for him. Either way, I expect it to make a paltry $35mm.

Pros: Kilmer at his craziest. Kristin Wiig always is worth a couple of laughs - she will be starring in movies sooner rather than later.

Cons: SNL skits to screen can be very hit or miss. Is Forte on the same level as Myers or Carvey?

Sex and the City 2: Qualifies under #3 and #9.
Opens: May 27th, 2010
Starring: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Catrell, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and Penelope Cruz.

Women get your Manolo Blaniks and Jimmy Choo’s ready (although I think in the last few years, Christian Louboutin has become the more popular brand), because this movie will feel like a must see and must get dressed up event for all the ladies out there. After the runaway success of the first film, there was no doubt that a sequel would be greenlighted. The only question is will this movie do better than the first? I’m not so sure, since the movie doubtfully picked up any new fans. Basically if you enjoyed the TV shows, then you watched the first movie. So to be quite honest, I expect more of the same. There will be a huge upfront demand, making for a big opening weekend. The movie will end with a solid $150+mm, on par with the original. Why? Because let’s face it. They aren’t breaking new ground with this movie, what you expect is what you’ll get. Still this is the must see movie event for women this summer and I doubt it’ll disappoint.

Pros: All the women who can relate to Carrie, Samantha, Miranda, and Charlotte. All the women who want a Mr. Big in their lives. All the women who loves designer clothes, shoes, and bags. In other words...all the women want to see this.

Cons: Where will the story go? How many times can people put up with the whole Big and Carrie break up or have relationship difficulties storyline, when they know they'll somehow get back together again.

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: Qualifies under #2 and arguably #3.
Opens: May 28th, 2010
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kinsley, and Alfred Molina
Directed by: Mike Newell

The quota for the annual-summer-Jerry-Bruckheimer-produced-film has been met with this action-adventure based on the popular video game. The trailers are exactly what you would expect from a Bruckheimer action film – lots of cool special effects, bad writing, a surprising male lead (who isn’t who’d you’d expect to be starring in this kind of film), and a pretty lady. I am curious to see how the video game translates to the big screen. The scenes with the dagger and sandstorms remind me of “The Scorpion King” to the 100th degree. Yet the trailer still doesn’t amaze me. Opening on Memorial Day weekend, expect a decent first weekend of $50mm before topping out at a shade over $100mm.

Pro: Bruckheimer is at his best in these types of productions. And people doubted Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Carribean...

Cons: Until I see it, I don't buy Jake Gyllenhal as an action star. And the trailers have yet to make me think otherwise. Actually, the trailers looks pretty stupid (even stealing the Mission Impossible 2 line from Anthony Hopkins). Plus, video games to movies are very hit or miss – and I think this one will be a miss.

Check back next week when I preview June's openings.

Robert and Me

The title is a twist on the Michael Moore documentary, Roger and Me, but I replaced Roger with Robert (as in Robert Downey Jr.). That’s right Iron Man himself. Why? Because thanks to my well connected friend, Marc, I got to see the early premiere of Iron Man 2. And it was quite an experience…

First off, we met at a Chevy’s across the street from the Times Square AMC theater. Me, the aforementioned well connect Marc, and my other buddy Sherm. Our fourth buddy, Jay the comedian, was running late and was planning to meet us at the theater. We decided on Chevy’s, since it was Cuatro de Mayo…(Happy Cinco De Mayo everyone – one of my favorite non-universal holidays). We got there and saw a line around the block that lead all the way to the Port Authority. Good thing we had reserved tickets (did I mentioned my friend Marc was well connected. I might have to start calling him Marc Walnuts). Anyway, we grabbed some appetizers and drinks while we waited for our final party member. At a quarter to seven, we got the phone call. Jay the comedian is waiting on line. We had a quick laugh and then told him to get off the line. We had guaranteed seats baby. Otherwise, I think Jay would still be in line waiting.

We got out ticket passes and made our way to the theater. Little did we know we were walking into Iron Man 2: The Game Show. Scary Jones from Z100 was there along with several other marketing partners and Paramount staffers getting the crowd warmed up. Trivia, jokes, and costumes was on the lineup…here are the highlights.

1. Prizes were awarded to people who had to answer the following hard questions:

• a. Who wrote the original comic book?
• b. Who plays Iron Man in the movie? (Followed by my buddy Jay taking out the complimentary poster and pointing to the name Robert Downey Jr - Did I mention he was a comedian).
• c. What is the name of Tony Starks’s assistant?
• d. Then they threw a curveball and asked what was the numbered edition of the comic book that first premiered the Iron Man character? A few people had no clue. I felt sorry for these people. It’s like one of the SNL skits where everyone around you gets easy questions like, “Where are you now”, while you have to answer “what is the distance from the Earth to the Sun”. After three tries, somebody finally knew the answer. You know what answer that guy didn’t know…what a girl’s breasts feel like.
• e. And then to make matters worse, the next question was another easy one - who played Tony Starks friend Jim Rhodes. This one actually has two correct answers. Where’s the consistency and fairness with the questions people?

2. Then it was time for the costume contest:

• a. One guy came dressed up as Tony Stark (you know minus the Robert Downey Jr. looks and build). This prompted my two buddies, Marc and Sherm, who work corporate jobs to ponder getting up and trying to pass off a button down shirt and a tie as “dressed like Tony Stark”.
• b. Two people dressed up as Iron Man. One guy who would qualify for the joke, “I’m in shape…I’m round.” And a little kid who had to go down as one of the cutest ever. If you were a single guy and you brought that kid to the park, you’d walk home with at least seven phone numbers. And yes, I just pimped out that kid dressed as Iron Man. Anyway, the crowd in attendance had to vote for the winner. Guess who won?
• c. I kept waiting for somebody dressed up as Whiplash to get up and beat up the guy (not the kid) dressed up as Iron Man. That would have made my day.

3. My buddy Marc decides to go to the bathroom at 7:22pm. As he leaves, Scary Jones screams out, “Are you ready to get on with the show?” We joke about Marc’s excellent timing. Don’t worry; he made it back in time.

4. As the lights went out, the screen expanded. Let me say that again. The screen EXPANDED. That’s how you get the crowd excited for a movie.

5. I won’t spoil the movie for you. Most of you probably plan on watching it regardless of what I say. If not, it’s well worth your time and money. I’d say it was a great movie. Not better than the first one, but just as good. And that’s quite an accomplishment. I’ll just say a couple of things about the movie.

• a. In the first movie, I was surprised by Gwyneth Paltrow. I have to admit, I was never a huge fan of hers and never thought she was all that. But something about her role (and her wardrobe) in Iron Man made me walk out with a huge crush on her. Paltrow was so sexy and hot in that movie that I had to bump her up a few hundred spots in my own personal unbiased rankings. Well, I got the same reaction after watching Scarlett Johansson absolutely kill it in the sequel. Like most people, I had my doubts when I heard she was cast. But she was sexy, funny, and had one of the best fight sequences ever. Ryan Reynolds is one lucky SOB.
• b. The ending action sequence is absolutely crazy. It caused my buddy Sherm to jump out of his seat when it was over. The buildup was so good and it totally hit every spot with the payoff. I’d put it up there with the ending action sequences of Avatar, Kick Ass, and even last year’s The Incredible Hulk.

6. When the movie ended everyone clapped as if they made the movie. But nobody left. Nobody. All the seats were still filled waiting for the credits to roll and for the extra scene to begin. All I can say is that the crowd geeked out at the bonus scene. It was perfectly executed.

7. The movie was so good, we’re going to watch it in IMAX. Now, that’s the best recommendation I could ever give a movie. See it.

8. Thank you Marc (and Sherm and Jay for your comedic contributions).