Summer Movie Preview: June 2010

So May has come to an end and this has to go down as one of the most disappointing May's in summer box office history. Every movie that came out underwhelmed. We already saw two box office bombs. Three more box office disappointments. And not a single well reviewed major movie.

Let's recap quickly (check out my May movie preview at http://bypremier.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-summer-movie-preview-may.html.)

I predicted Iron Man 2 to do huge business. It did well opening weekend, but $128mm was still below expectations. It's done over $277mm so far, but looks to come in just around the $318mm the first one made. Everyone thought the sequel would make more than the first one, but audiences were not too pleased with the second one. Hopefully, the third one can rediscover the greatness of the first entry.

Robin Hood did OK business, but won't make more than the Kevin Costner version. This will be another blow to the box office clout of Russell Crowe.

If any movie exceeded expectations, it was Letters from Juliet. The romantic movie will finish will a good $45-50mm. Amanda Seyfried will be a huge star if she keeps this up (she was in Mamma Mia and Dear John). Who would have thought when Mean Girls came out, that Lindsay Lohan would be the third biggest star of the movie (following Rachel McAdams and Seyfried).

Just Wright and McGruber came and went in the blink of an eye. Neither made much of a dent at the box office and will go on to enjoy a nice run on DVD. McGruber was especially a huge flop, not even making back its estimated $10mm budget. It may have single-handedly killed any hope of future SNL skit to screen movies.

Shrek 4 also did decent business, but easily came in as the worst performing in the franchise. Sure it'll be the #1 movie two weekends in a row, but...

...that's because Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia both came up short at the box office. It's clear that audiences were not screaming for a second Sex and the City movie, when the first one wrapped things up perfectly. Audiences were also not screaming for Jake Gyllenhall as an action hero. SATC 2 will make over $!00mm, but come up far short of the first entry. Prince of Persia won't even make $100mm, and won't even 50% of the estimated $150mm budget. There goes Jake's franchise hopes.

Let's hope June has more to offer...I know the movie studios and theaters hope so:

JUNE 2010:

Get Him to the Greek: A chance to qualify under #4 and #8.

Starring: Jonah Hill, Russell Brand, and P. Diddy

This movie has an outside chance to be this summer’s breakout comedy hit. A sequel of sorts to “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” (in the way that “Evan Almighty” was a sequel to “Bruce Almighty”), “Greek” takes the rocker Aldris Snow from the first movie and makes him the star. The red band trailer looks partially funny, but I expect a lot more crazy stuff to happen in the movie. The star here will be Brand (aka Katy Perry’s lucky boyfriend) and he could put himself on another level if this movie finds much success. However, his humor also has the ability to turn lots of people off with its brashness and outrageousness. Expect a final gross in the $50-55mm final gross matching “Sarah Marshall’s” total.

Pros: A star making turn for Russell Brand?

Cons: “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” wasn't exactly the biggest hit and didn't really cry out for sequel. Also, too raunchy to be a breakout hit?

Killers: A chance to qualify under #5 and #9.

Starring: Katherine Heigl, Ashton Kutcher, and Tom Selleck.

Directed by: Robert Luketic

People are comparing this movie to "Mr. and Mrs. Smith", but it looks like a more PG version of "True Lies". Except no James Cameron and no Arnold. Plus, Kutcher is no Brad Pitt or Arnold. So in my opinion, this movie lies squarely on the shoulders of Heigl. Since "Grey's Anatomy" and "Knocked Up", Heigl has shown that she can open up a movie by herself (think "27 Dresses" and "The Ugly Truth"). All her films have finished north of $75mm at the box office and I expect "Killers" to do the same.

Pros: Couple friendly concept and stars. Friendly rating. Almost critic proof (see "Bounty Hunter", which will finish with over $60mm at the box office).

Cons: The movie is almost guaranteed to be bad.

Splice: A chance to qualify under #5.

Starring: Adrian Brody and Sarah Polley.

A very interesting horror/suspense movie that combines science and monsters. This has a bit of "Species" mixed in with "Mimic" and I could see it being a breakout hit of sorts as something different during the summer season of bang and boom. The trailers do a good job of adding intrigue while giving you a glimpse of the creature. No name stars might hurt, but I actually think it helps in these types of films (see "District 9"). Stars would only take away from the premise and that is what will sell this film. Expect a straight-to-DVD sequel. Final gross will be a solid $75mm.

Pros: Did I mention the premise?

Cons: These types of movies don't make $100mm (District 9 is the exception).

The A-Team: Qualifies under #2 and #3.

Starring: Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, Sharlito Copley, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, and Jessice Biel.

Directed by: Joe Carnahan

Now this is a movie that I'm really looking forward to. I think the casting is superb. The director's choice is spot on. And this TV show has been screaming for a movie. Now, apparently I don't speak for everyone out there (why is that?). The trailers have been both cool and ridiculous (C'mon, the tank flying in the air). But I think the movie isn't meant to be taken seriously. You come for the famous lines ("I love it when a plan comes together"), the overacting, the action sequences, and the theme song (the whistle part always gets me). This movie will make at least $150mm, but has a chance to top $200mm if the reviews are positive.

Pros: Supposedly one of the coolest action sequences ever. And a possible Mr. T cameo.

Cons: Could it be more "GI Joe" than "Star Trek"?

The Karate Kid: Qualifies under #3

Starring: Jaden Smith, Jackie Chan, and Taraj P. Henson

This movie has set off a firestorm online. Fans of the original movie are in an uproar that their beloved film is being remade with a privileged son of a famous movie star (that would be Will "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air" Smith). Throw in people upset that the movie takes place in China and should factually be known as "The Kung Fu Kid", as well as the Asian population that should be mad that the black kid is clearly going to get the cute little Asian girl at the end of the movie (while kicking the Asian boys ass in a fight) and you can understand why this movie has failure and boycott written all over it. But somewhere between all that madness, people actually started feeling sorry for the movie (kind of like in sports when someone is underrated for so long that they become overrated – see Ben Wallace). Then started the outcry of "Give the movie a chance", "It's actually pretty good", and "Wouldn't you do the same for your son if you could". My prediction, this movie will be a huge hit. The movie will be one of the better reviewed movies of the summer. Jaden Smith will be on his way to super stardom. And the movie will make a ton overseas. It will be this year's Star Trek...put it in the books for $175mm.

Pros: Based on a popular 80's movie and pays proper homage to it. Will reach out to the Asian and African American audiences.

Cons: Still potential for fan backlash. Ralph Macchio might give this movie his blessing, which will actually kill the movie's prospects.

Jonah Hex: Qualifies under #2, #4

Starring: Josh Brolin, Megan Fox, Wil Arnett, and John Malkovich.

Another "based on the comic book/graphic novel" that very few people ever heard of. The backstory on the making of this movie just cries out "bust of the summer" (change of directors, rewrites, Megan Fox's acting)...but then the first trailer came out and I must say I was impressed. Brolin seems tailor made for this role, Fox is her usual sexy self, and the action looks pretty sick. However, it also has a little too much "Wild, Wild, West" in it. I say it bombs, finishing with a box office gross of $50mm (and I really wanted to like this movie. Heck, I’ll probably still go and see it).

Pros: Brolin makes for a better action star than Kutcher. Megan Fox in a corset. Malkovich always kills as the bad guy ("In the Line of Fire" anyone?)

Cons: Bad buzz. Trailers are supposed to look cool, but if they show all the good parts then the movie will suck.

Toy Story 3: Qualifies under #3, #7

Featuring voice by: Tom Hanks and Tim Allen.

One of the few guarantees of the summer. Pixar is can't miss. They are the Jason Heyward/Justin Beiber/child of Tom Brady and Giselle of the movie business. You know exactly what you're going to get. A great movie for all age. Some funny moments. A few touching moments. A great story. And a reason to believe in the beauty of movies again. I can't wait.
But this time the geniuses at Pixar are making it's first ever threequel. And people are starting to express doubt and fear. Doubt that the original ideas are running out. Fear that they are only doing this for the merchandising rights and because Disney demanded it. Well, I say to all those doubters and naysayers...Pixar has given you at least eight reasons why you shouldn't doubt them. And even if it's not as good as the first two, aren't you just a bit glad to see Woody and Buzz one more time. I say it makes $275mm gross.

Pros: Toy Story 1. Toy Story 2. The child in all of us.

Cons: Not many third parts of a franchise are that good. C'mon who am I kidding. There are no cons.

Grown Ups: Qualifies under #8

Starring: Adam Sandler, Chris Rock, Kevin James, David Spade, Rob Schneider, and Salma Hayek.

Directed by: Dennis Dugan

A comedy dream team starring some of the most celebrated and successful SNL alumni. Sandler looks to bounce back after last year's disappointing "Funny People", while the others are just looking to score another big box office hit (sad that Kevin James might be the biggest box office draw out of them all). However, the trailers have yet to make me laugh. Just like the "Funny People" trailers didn't make me laugh. And they keep trying to sell us on the stars (understandably so with this comedy all star lineup) instead of the actual movie. Much like "Funny People" tried to sell us on Apatow. So, I'm not sold on this film. I think it has a chance to be more like "Mr. Deeds" or "Click" than "50 First Dates" or "Big Daddy" on the Adam Sandler scale of greatness. I say this one barely makes $100mm.

Pros: Sandler + Rock + James + Spade + Schneider = Guaranteed to make the teenage and young boys laugh.

Cons: Doesn't it make you wish Chris Farley was there instead of Kevin James. A little too much Salma Hayek in the trailers - not bad if you're a Salma fan, bad if you have hopes of this being a funny movie.

Knight & Day:

Starring: Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz

Directed by: James Mangold

Could this be the movie that reminds us why Cruise was once the biggest movie star in the world? I think it could be. The trailers make me laugh. The action looks slick. Even Diaz comes off at the top of her game. I really think this movie has a chance to garner some good reviews and a pretty box office take. I say it finishes with a $200mm gross.

Pros: Cruise and Diaz are both big box office draws in the right type of film. This is that type of film.

Cons: A corny title. It should have been called Knight & Deay and starred Bobby Knight and Parker Deay.

The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – Qualifies under #3

Starring: Kristin Stewart, Robert Pattinson, Taylor Lautner, and Dakota Fanning.

Are you ready for more pasty faced vampires and shirtless werewolves? Based on the killer box office figures of the first two Twilight films, I’m going to say yes (yes, yes, a thousand times yes). The trailer for Eclipse recently premiered to rousing fan approval. This one looks like it might actually ramp up the action a bit, which could bring in some non-diehards. However, this movie is now in the Harry Potter realm of franchises. The movies will all see final grosses in the same range (Harry Potter makes $260-300mm domestic, Twilight makes about $290-300mm domestic). This is another one of the summer’s locks. A can’t miss.

Pros: Twi-hards. Team Edward. Team Jacob.

Cons: I still don’t get the appeal. The first two were boring to me and almost tortuous to watch. And I don’t think I’m alone on the front.


Check back at the end of June for my thoughts on July movies.

2010 Summer Movie Preview: May

May is here!!!!! And for all those movie lovers out there, that means one of the two best times of the movie year is arriving (the other being holiday movie season from Thanksgiving to Christmas). That’s right…summer movie season kicks off on May 7th. Now with any summer movie slate, there are certain guarantees.

1. The kickoff weekend will be huge for whichever movie studio claims that weekend (See “Iron Man 2”. 2009 equivalent = “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”).

2. Plenty of big budget, special effects driven movies (See “Prince of Persia”, “The Sorcerers Apprentice” and "The Last Airbender". 2009 equivalent; the aforementioned “Wolverine”, "Transformer 2", "GI Joe", and "Star Trek").

3. Sequels, Threequels, Adaptations, Remakes, and Re-imaging’s galore (See “Iron Man 2”, “Sex and the City 2”, "Twilight Saga: Eclipse", and “A-Team”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”, “Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince”, “GI Joe”, “Angels and Demons”, Terminator Salvation”, and “Transformers 2”).

4. A couple of complete box office disasters (See “Jonah Hex” and “Prince of Persia”. 2009 equivalent “Bruno”, “Funny People”, “Year One” and “Land of the Lost”).

5. A couple of box office surprises (See “Splice” and "The Karate Kid". 2009 equivalent = “District 9).

6. At least one big budget movie will get great reviews and then go on to be a huge crowd favorite and make over $250mm at the box office - thus exceeding expectations (See “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”).

7. One unbelievable Pixar movie (See “Toy Story 3”. 2009 equivalent = “Up”).

8. One comedy that outshines all the others (usually starring Will Ferrell). (See ”The Other Guys”. 2009 equivalent = “The Hangover”)

9. A chick flick that serves as counter programming. (See “Sex and the City 2”, “Eat, Pray, Love”, and “Killers”. 2009 equivalent – “The Proposal”, “Julie and Julia”, “Ghost of Girlfriends Past”, and “The Ugly Truth”)

10. And one epic action movie – usually with a historical setting with a well known legendary figure. (See “Robin Hood”. 2009 equivalent – “Public Enemies”)

11. A family friendly movie, non-Pixar related. (See “Despicable Me” and “Cats and Dogs 2”. 2009 equivalent – “G-Force” and “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”).

12. One low budget indie that gets some Oscar buzz only to fizzle out at awards time. (See “The Kids Are Alright”, “happythankyoumoreplease”, and “Cyrus”. 2009 equivalent – “500 Days of Summer”)

Ok, let’s take a look at what movies will be taking our money and wasting our time:

MAY 2010:

Iron Man 2: Qualifies under #1, #2, and #3 above.
Opens: May 7th, 2010
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Mickey Rourke, Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Directed by: Jon Favreau

Are you ready for this because this is going to be huge? The only question is how huge. Sequels are usually hit or miss. Rarely are they better than the first, but thanks to the pent up demand, the second part usually opens bigger and sees a greater amount of grosses frontloaded. But once in a while, you get a movie that actually builds on the first one. One that is arguably better (see Terminator 2, Aliens, and The Dark Knight) and outgrosses the first one. There is no doubt that the movie is grossing $400mm (it’ll break $150mm on opening weekend). But if it’s as good as the trailers look, then it’ll crack $500mm easily and be the movie to beat for the summer box office crown.

Pros: Huge demand, must see status, awesome trailers, rumors of Captain America and Thor appearances.

Cons: Can it live up to the first one? Iron Man 2 didn’t have much to work off of from the comic book source material – so they had to make up a story based on a lot of different story lines in the comics. Throw in the fact that there are no well known villains, fan outrage over Scarlett Johansson casting, and you could see a semi-Iron Man backlash.

Robin Hood: Qualifies under #3 and #10
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, William Hurt.
Directed by: Ridley Scott

The team that brought you Gladiator brings you a film that will definitely be compared to Gladiator. My initial reaction to the trailers was, “Eh”. After seeing more trailers, my reaction is still “Eh”. I don’t know what to expect - just another sweeping epic with grand fighting scenes along the likes of “The Patriot”, “Kingdom of Heaven”, and “King Arthur” or a movie that tries to tell the true story behind the legend like last summer’s “Public Enemies” (And you know what, Public Enemies was pretty disappointing)? The filmmakers certainly hope that is not the case, since none of those films did extraordinarily well at the box office (and Kingdom of Heaven and King Arthur were bombs). So what does all that mean? Well, the film lies clearly on the shoulders of Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott. And neither is at the heights of their box office pull. Crowe isn’t the same star as he was after Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind. With State of Play bombing, he’s become less and less a draw. And Scott found little success with Body of Lies. Throw in the fact that the movie has to deal with the second weekend of Iron Man 2 and things don’t look so good. This could be the first box office bomb of the summer. I’m going to say it’ll end up with only $75mm gross.

Pros: The team of Crowe and Scott. Huge production values. Guaranteed to have one "F'ing awesome" fight scene involving a sword and/or bow and arrow.

Cons: Trailers that have failed to excite. Crowe at his box office lowest since "Virtuosity".

Letters to Juliet: Qualifies under #9
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Vanessa Redgrave, and Gael Garica Bernal.

A romantic comedy looking to serve up some counterprogramming to the big budget films Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood. It'll serve the audience looking for a sweet, romantic movie. Seyfried is an up and coming star (she was recently seen in "Dear John") and has her fans of young girls and even some young guys. Bernal (and his accent) has fans of young and old girls. And Redgrave could pull in some adults. But this movie has a limited potential (think "Leap Year" or "When In Rome") before finding an audience on cable and DVD. Final gross of $25mm.

Pros: The adorable Amanda Seyfried.

Cons: Not much seperates this movie from a thousand other romantic films.

Just Wright: Possibly qualifies under #5
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Common, Queen Latifah, and Paula Patton.

A romantic comedy starring a popular rapper playing outside his norm, and a popular actress/singer with a larger fan base than you would think. Throw in some basketball (perfect timing during the NBA playoffs) and a large African American cast (a fan base that will come out to support their own, as Tyler Perry has shown), and we could have our first surprising box office success. I could see this doing $40-45mm if it gets decent reviews.

Pros: Latifah has moderate success with these types of films (The Last Holiday - $39mm and Beauty Shop - $36mm). Counterprogramming in a summer full of films that don't cater to the African American audience.

Cons: Common as a basketball player? I guess it makes more sense than Bow Wow or Fredro Starr.


Shrek Forever After: Qualifies under #3.
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Featuring voices by: Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas, and Julie Andrews.

The animated series that is more successful than any Pixar franchise, yet not nearly as beloved (or good), returns for a fourth and (hopefully) final chapter. All the main characters return including the ogre Shrek, Princess Fiona, donkey, Puss N Boots, and the wonderful dragon (Parker’s favorite). Throw in a cute premise with Rumpelstiltskin and this may do better than the last entry in the franchise. However, the third Shrek left a bad taste in people’s mouth and some may have soured on the series. So expect a huge opening, say $90+mm before it finishes out around 270mm (matching the gross of the first Shrek). Of course, the key with any animated movie is the reviews. If it’s good, which I have yet to hear anything special about it (then again, I know nobody in the industry), then it could make a quality $300+mm total.

Pros: The Shrek franchise has made over $1bn at the box office. Plus; it's in 3D, which is all the rage these days.

Cons: The franchise is on its last legs. People weren't exactly screaming for a fourth one after Shrek the Third.

MacGruber: Qualifies under #4
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Starring: Will Forte, Kristin Wiig, Ryan Phillippe, and Val Kilmer

A halfway decent SNL skit was inexplicably turned into a summer action-comedy flick. This one has “A Night at the Roxbury” written all over it. Expect a lot of ridiculous jokes, gross out humor and violence, and some outlandish acting by Kilmer and Forte. The only way this goes beyond the core audience of SNL’ers is if Kilmer give such a crazy performance (which he is entirely capable of) that the movie becomes must see just for him. Either way, I expect it to make a paltry $35mm.

Pros: Kilmer at his craziest. Kristin Wiig always is worth a couple of laughs - she will be starring in movies sooner rather than later.

Cons: SNL skits to screen can be very hit or miss. Is Forte on the same level as Myers or Carvey?

Sex and the City 2: Qualifies under #3 and #9.
Opens: May 27th, 2010
Starring: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Catrell, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and Penelope Cruz.

Women get your Manolo Blaniks and Jimmy Choo’s ready (although I think in the last few years, Christian Louboutin has become the more popular brand), because this movie will feel like a must see and must get dressed up event for all the ladies out there. After the runaway success of the first film, there was no doubt that a sequel would be greenlighted. The only question is will this movie do better than the first? I’m not so sure, since the movie doubtfully picked up any new fans. Basically if you enjoyed the TV shows, then you watched the first movie. So to be quite honest, I expect more of the same. There will be a huge upfront demand, making for a big opening weekend. The movie will end with a solid $150+mm, on par with the original. Why? Because let’s face it. They aren’t breaking new ground with this movie, what you expect is what you’ll get. Still this is the must see movie event for women this summer and I doubt it’ll disappoint.

Pros: All the women who can relate to Carrie, Samantha, Miranda, and Charlotte. All the women who want a Mr. Big in their lives. All the women who loves designer clothes, shoes, and bags. In other words...all the women want to see this.

Cons: Where will the story go? How many times can people put up with the whole Big and Carrie break up or have relationship difficulties storyline, when they know they'll somehow get back together again.

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: Qualifies under #2 and arguably #3.
Opens: May 28th, 2010
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kinsley, and Alfred Molina
Directed by: Mike Newell

The quota for the annual-summer-Jerry-Bruckheimer-produced-film has been met with this action-adventure based on the popular video game. The trailers are exactly what you would expect from a Bruckheimer action film – lots of cool special effects, bad writing, a surprising male lead (who isn’t who’d you’d expect to be starring in this kind of film), and a pretty lady. I am curious to see how the video game translates to the big screen. The scenes with the dagger and sandstorms remind me of “The Scorpion King” to the 100th degree. Yet the trailer still doesn’t amaze me. Opening on Memorial Day weekend, expect a decent first weekend of $50mm before topping out at a shade over $100mm.

Pro: Bruckheimer is at his best in these types of productions. And people doubted Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Carribean...

Cons: Until I see it, I don't buy Jake Gyllenhal as an action star. And the trailers have yet to make me think otherwise. Actually, the trailers looks pretty stupid (even stealing the Mission Impossible 2 line from Anthony Hopkins). Plus, video games to movies are very hit or miss – and I think this one will be a miss.

Check back next week when I preview June's openings.