Fantasy Football Preview: May 2010

You know my motto; it’s never too early to talk fantasy football. And since May means only three more months before drafts start happening, I think that’s plenty of time to give you my award winning advice.

First off, Rotoworld has previewed its early mock draft. Some interesting points stand out.

• Aaron Rodgers is the new #1 fantasy QB; leapfrogging Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. With an improved offensive line (expect first round draft pick Bryan Buluga to step right in and have a positive impact), I can’t disagree with this argument. Of course, there is always a chance that this is the year Donald Driver starts to show his age. But Jermichael Finley is projected to make the leap and become a Dallas Clark/Antonio Gates like TE threat. Throw in another solid year for Greg Jennings and a nasty third WR in James Jones, and the only hope of stopping this offensive juggernaut is injuries.
• Chris Johnson is the clear cut #1 RB and player overall. However, the threat of holdout does scare me (and I have him as a potential keeper – oh who am I kidding, I’m not keeping him). As mentioned by my two knowledgeable friends, Navid and Scotty Watts, this could play out like Emmitt Smith when he held out for the first two games before finally getting his money.
• MJD over AP for the #2 spot. This is a tossup. Both are no worse than the third fantasy RB/player overall. Sherm is going to have a difficult decision to make. Kind of like when he has to decide whether or not to wear that sweater vest or not.
  
• The obvious #1 fantasy WR looks to be Andre Johnson, but he too is threatening a hold out. With five years left on his contract, I don’t see this one turning out well for AJ. Reminds me of Anquan Boldin’s situation with the Cardinals the last couple of years. Still no reason to knock Andre down though. He’s still better than Megatron, B-Marshall, Fitz, and Reggie Wayne.

Secondly, Peter King came out with his preliminary ranking of the top 32 teams. Here are my thoughts:

• It is important to note that the super bowl winner always has a difficult follow up season (see no further than Pittsburgh Steelers circa last year). And I expect New Orleans to face similar difficulties. No Drew Brees won’t be getting into any legal trouble, and he’ll still be a top 3 fantasy QB (4,500 yards and 30 TD’s), but from a fantasy perspective - I’d be wary of the New Orleans defense. If you based your defensive rankings on last year’s stats (never a wise thing to do by the way), you’ll have New Orleans being one of the first few taken off the board. But I feel a letdown coming on this year. The unit will miss Scott Fujita. No way does Darren Sharper have the same impact in year two. Same goes for Gregg Williams. The unit will be a bye week replacement and no better. On the plus side, expect a breakout year for Robert Meachem. And a fully healthy season from Pierre Thomas.
  
• Also, there has been at least a 50 percent turnover in the playoff teams. Expect no different this year. Let’s take a look at the difference between 2008 and 2009.
• 2008 playoff teams: Atlanta, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tennessee, New York Giants, Carolina, Pittsburgh
• 2009 playoff teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans.
• Basically 2009 saw the NYJ, Cincy, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans account for the turnover. From a fantasy perspective that meant surprising bounceback performances from players like Chad OchoCinco and Laurence Maroney, breakout performances from players like Cedric Benson, Miles Austin, Jermichael Finley, and Robert Meachem, and five of those defensive units were every week starters.
• The teams that fell out of the playoffs were Atlanta, Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Fantasy wise; this saw a decline in stats from Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Kerry Collins, Tennessee Defense, Brandon Jacobs, NYG Defense, Jake Delhomme, Willie Parker, and the Pittsburgh Defense. If you had any of those players, chances are you didn’t do too well.
• What does that mean? Well, if you have a prediction on which teams will make the jump, then you could be in luck with striking fantasy gold. Personally; I think New Orleans, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and New England are in trouble. My forecast for this year’s surprise playoff bound teams: Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Carolina, San Francisco, Washington, and Oakland. Yes, I said Oakland.
• Key players from these respective teams (other than the obvious – i.e. Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart, etc.): Chad Henne, Brian Hartline, Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, Detroit Defense, Matt Moore, Michael Crabtree, Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis, Clinton Portis, Darren McFadden, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schillens.
  

I would call this a tease, but I write way too much. Until June 2010…

The countdown to the draft has begun.

Weekly Random Thoughts: 4/23/10

1. My buddy Parker called and left me a message the other day. He said, “I’m soooo glad you didn’t pick up the phone.” Thanks Parker. Love you too.

2. I won one free ticket to the 2nd and 3rd round of the NFL draft on Friday. Now I don’t know if I should go, since it’s only one ticket. Am I supposed to go by myself and just watch the draft unfold? That doesn’t sound too fun. Plus; isn’t that why they invented the TV, so you wouldn’t have to go watch these types of events by yourself?

3. Speaking of the NFL draft, I hope the New York Giants get Rolando McClain. We desperately need a leader on defense to replace Antonio Pierce. Signing Antrel Rolle was nice, but this would be much sweeter.

4. Speaking of New York sport teams. Thank god the Mets have Mike Pelfrey. He’s basically the team MVP so far leading the team in practically every category (wins, ERA, innings pitched, saves, and he’s even batting .500). Pelfrey’s won or saved in four or the teams’ six wins, that’s accounting for 67% of the wins for the year.

5. Is there any worse feeling that getting old? I was playing basketball the other day and I basically stood there the entire time with my brain wanting to do one thing, but my body saying, “No, can’t do it.”. And my body is still hurting from playing.
a. Sidenote – “Where did my jumper go?”

6. Is there a hotter black woman right now than Zoe Saldana?
a. PS – I want to see “The Losers”.

7. Ever watch “Human Target” on Fox? I think that show has potential to replace “24”.

8. I think “Glee” might be suffering from becoming too popular, too fast. The first two episodes of the season have been inconsistent. Seems like they are picking the songs first, and then writing the story around the songs. But shouldn’t it be the other way around?

9. This Saturday is “Hands on New York Day” (www.handsonnewyorkday.org). I would really like to join, however I would have to pay money unless I’m part of a corporate sponsored team. This bothers me, because isn’t the point of volunteering to help out for free. You don’t get paid and you don’t have to pay. I mean I understand that the sponsors of the program have expenses (shovels, plants, etc), but isn’t that why they have corporate sponsors and other donors? Why should someone who wants to participate be forced to pay – shouldn’t it be optional? If I want to donate, I will. If I don’t, then I’m donating my time.

10. This must be the year of the blogs. Two buddies of mine are starting up their own blogs. I suggest you all check them out.
a. Hidden as a favor to the blogger...
b. http://brockangeles.tumblr.com/
c. And for the man who has been at this blog thing for awhile
(http://retiredorangemen.blogspot.com/)

Peyton Favre or Brett Manning

After losing a Super Bowl everyone thought he should win, I wonder if Peyton Manning is fast becoming the next Brett Farve.

You may say no way. Peyton Manning is beloved. He’s one of the most respected players in the game. He’s a true team leader and one of the hardest working guys in the game. On top of that, he’s probably the most marketable player in the NFL (and top five in all of sports). If you saw his MasterCard commercials or SNL guest spot, you’d know he’s also a very funny guy. On the other hand, Favre is a guy whom you either love or hate. He is a guy who always makes the big mistake or fails to come through in the clutch. An indecisive and selfish man who doesn’t know when to call it quits and turned his back on an entire city that loved and defended him to the death. What an a**hole.

But if you remember back, before all that happened in 2008, Brett Favre was beloved. He was one of the most respected players in the game. CNNSI’s man of the year. A guy who loved to play the game and always had fun out there (as shown by his smile and boyish like demeanor on the field). And in Green Bay, Wisconsin - Favre was king. He was the equivalent of Nick Serrano in the ROFFL. And if you watched “There’s Something About Mary”, you’d know that he had a sense of humor about him. Also, if you watched the MNF game against Oakland when he played so brilliantly and courageously after losing his father, you’d know that it was hard to be a critic of his. He was almost untouchable. But all that changed when he got into an ugly and bitter divorce with the Packers leading to his trade to the Jets.

My question is will that same fate happen to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts?

Sure, Peyton will sign an extension that will allow him to play out the remainder of his career at Indy. But wasn’t Favre supposed to play out the remainder of his career at Green Bay. But what if Peyton wants to play until he’s 40? What if he retires and decides he can’t be away from the game just like Favre?

Is it fair to make that assumption? Well if you look deep into the similarities of both players’ careers, then you can see similar career paths.

Let's take a look at each player's stats:

Super Bowl record:
Peyton Manning: 1-1
Super Bowl XLIV (Loss) – 31/45, 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Super Bowl XLI (Win) – 25/38, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Brett Favre: 1-1
Super Bowl XXXII (Loss) – 25/42, 256 yards, 3 TD’S, 1 INT
Super Bowl XXXI (Win) – 14/27, 246 yards, 2 TD’s, 12 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD

Regular season:

Peyton Manning:
12 seasons with Indianapolis (he’ll be 37 if/when he plays his 16th season)
192 consecutive games started
50,128 yards
366 TDs
4 regular season MVP’s

Brett Favre:
16 seasons with Green Bay
286 consecutive games started
69,329 yards
497 TDs
3 regular season MVP’s

A couple of interesting things stand out:
· Brett Favre was actually better in the Super Bowl, yet both will be defined by winning only one super bowl.
· And Peyton has a chance to break every single regular season record that Brett Favre holds. And from what I hear and read, Peyton knows very well about his place in history. And he wants to be known as the greatest quarterback ever.

And that is what I see as the potential key to Peyton emulating Favre’s end of career path. If Peyton wants to break the record for consecutive games started or yards thrown or TD’s thrown, then he’ll have to play into his late 30’s/early 40’s. And if Peyton doesn’t win that second title, and falls short several more times, then the criticism will start to weigh on him.

If the script unfolds as such, then as the years go by, I truly believe the rumblings will grow with intensity. The only way for Peyton to stop them is to win another title and know when to gracefully bow out. As a Peyton fan, I for one hope he wins at least one more title and retired as a Colt. Because as much as I love seeing Favre play, I wish he would have retired as a Green Bay Packer. And I really hope I’m wrong on this.