Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/21/10

1. Rumor has it the Sex and the City 2 premiere in New York City will be on Monday, May 24th at Radio City Music Hall. All the stars will be there and everyone will be dressed in their finest Manolo’s, Jimmy Choo’s, and Louboutins. But good luck trying to get a ticket - looks like it is open to industry insiders only.

2. More LeBron follow-up:

My buddy, Danny, make the excellent parallel that if LeBron leaves Cleveland then he’ll become the NBA version of A-rod. A supremely talented athlete, that could go down as arguably one of the best 5-10 players ever, yet is seen as more of a villain than a beloved icon. Throw in the possibility that both jump to the biggest market (NY) to get their championship title(s). I’m not saying they are exactly the same, but it’s an interesting parallel.

3. Pursuing the dream:

A co-worker of mine told me about a friend who was screening a movie ("lbs") he worked on. You could call it a decade long passion project. One that was started in 2002, finished after 27 months of filming, premiered at the Cannes Film Festival - where it won one of the prizes, only to not get any distributors, and find itself still trying to find an interested movie studio eight years later. It’s a sad story that so many hopeful artists live through. I wish these people could catch a break and see their dreams come true, but I’m probably more sympathetic to these dreamers. It’s a hard life to try to live when you want to accomplish something only 1% of the population and I have so much respect and admiration for those who continue to pursue despite all the negativity and roadblocks in their way.

I have another friend who has been trying his hand at acting for almost ten years now, and a guy who quit his job to pursue his dream of being a comedian. Both are struggling. But both are also happy doing what they do. If only they could make a decent living off that.

4. How to fix the Mets:

In a span of three weeks, the Mets have gone from first place to last place. You know things are bad as a Mets fan when you wish you were as good as the Washington Nationals. It’s been tough to watch. And based on attendance and ticket sales, it seems it’s been so tough that people don’t even bother watching anymore. The new stadium is not even two years old…that’s a bit early to start having empty seats. Seriously, the team has way too much talent (not to mention a ridiculously high payroll) to be a last place team floundering two games below .500. But it can be salvaged. Here’s how:

Settle on a lineup Jerry! Every freakin day Jerry Manuel has a new lineup in there. The guy can’t even stay with a single cleanup hitter, going with the likes of Mike Jacobs and Chris Carter. And what a bad idea it was to hit Jose Reyes third…Reyes is not Hanley Ramirez. It’s really not rocket science Jerry. Here’s your lineup: Reyes, Castillo/Cora, Wright, Bay, Ike Davis, Pagan, Francouer, Barajas, Pitcher.

Injuries aside, the pitching staff should be: Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, and Maine. Niese is currently on the DL, so you can have Takahashi hold down the fort until he gets back. Valdez was halfway decent filling in for Maine, so he can hold it down too for now. Problem with Takahashi and Valdez is they probably can’t go longer than 5 innings, since they were used to pitching out of the bullpen. But we’ll just have to scrape something together and tax the bullpen even more. The rumored plan is for young stud, Jennry Meija, to extend his pitch count so he can start (that could take up to a month or two). I think that’s a horrible idea, because it will most certainly ruin his young arm. At this point, I wouldn’t hold out hope for Maine to figure out his stuff either. But whatever we do, do not start Oliver Perez. He is the win streak stopper, the losing streak prolonger. He sucks!!!!!!

What happened to Bobby Parnell? He was our 8th inning guy last year…he can’t possibly be worse than Manny Acosta (true, he sucked in spring training and the minors). Bring him up to fill in the bullpen spots opened up by Takahashi and/or Meija/Valdez starting. The bullpen will need all the available arms it can get. Good thing Igarashi is returning soon.

Cut Gary Matthews Jr. He’s not a good pinch hitter and I’d rather have Pagan start every day.

Get a sports psychologist for David Wright and Jose Reyes. Something’s not right with either guy.

Find a heart and soul of the team. The Mets play without any sense of urgency, understanding of the moment, or resiliency. They press way too much. They are the anti-Phillies. This is not something easily done obviously, it’ll require new players and management…but the players on the roster need to look hard in the mirror and rediscover the magic.

5. Shrek Forever After: The Final Chapter opens this weekend

Reviews seem to be in line with Shrek the Third. Not sure what to expect. It’ll open at #1, but will it break $100m? With 3D prices and little competition for family audiences, probably…It’s sad though, because the first two were very good movies. I guess this is what would happen if Pixar ever milked a franchise to death (which could very well happen with Toy Story 3). Guess that’s the biggest difference between Pixar and Dreamworks Animation.

6. NBA Playoffs:

Are we looking at another set of sweeps? What a bunch of crappy playoff rounds. So far Orlando has been outmatched by Rondo and the big 3 and Phoenix can’t guard the Lakers big men (Gasol is killing them). As stated in my podcast interview (which can be found on this blog), I still hope for the Suns to make a comeback and win in 7. Orlando will win one game, but Boston looks to be in complete control. Guess we’re all headed for Boston vs. LA.

Magic is already giving interviews and offering to do another montage filled halftime special with Larry Bird.

7. BBQ’s:

It’s almost that time of the year - Summer BBQ season…and I can’t wait. There’s nothing better than some chicken wings, hot dogs, burgers, and if you’re high class…ribs and a little bul-go-ki.

Question – anybody know how to bbq chicken wings without burning them? I always end up charcoaling the skin and then ripping it off.

8. Congrats to Navid and Emily on their engagement. Sorry I couldn’t make it to the party. But I saw the video tape. Amazing job on the camera Scotty Watts.

2010 Summer Movie Preview: May

May is here!!!!! And for all those movie lovers out there, that means one of the two best times of the movie year is arriving (the other being holiday movie season from Thanksgiving to Christmas). That’s right…summer movie season kicks off on May 7th. Now with any summer movie slate, there are certain guarantees.

1. The kickoff weekend will be huge for whichever movie studio claims that weekend (See “Iron Man 2”. 2009 equivalent = “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”).

2. Plenty of big budget, special effects driven movies (See “Prince of Persia”, “The Sorcerers Apprentice” and "The Last Airbender". 2009 equivalent; the aforementioned “Wolverine”, "Transformer 2", "GI Joe", and "Star Trek").

3. Sequels, Threequels, Adaptations, Remakes, and Re-imaging’s galore (See “Iron Man 2”, “Sex and the City 2”, "Twilight Saga: Eclipse", and “A-Team”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”, “Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince”, “GI Joe”, “Angels and Demons”, Terminator Salvation”, and “Transformers 2”).

4. A couple of complete box office disasters (See “Jonah Hex” and “Prince of Persia”. 2009 equivalent “Bruno”, “Funny People”, “Year One” and “Land of the Lost”).

5. A couple of box office surprises (See “Splice” and "The Karate Kid". 2009 equivalent = “District 9).

6. At least one big budget movie will get great reviews and then go on to be a huge crowd favorite and make over $250mm at the box office - thus exceeding expectations (See “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”).

7. One unbelievable Pixar movie (See “Toy Story 3”. 2009 equivalent = “Up”).

8. One comedy that outshines all the others (usually starring Will Ferrell). (See ”The Other Guys”. 2009 equivalent = “The Hangover”)

9. A chick flick that serves as counter programming. (See “Sex and the City 2”, “Eat, Pray, Love”, and “Killers”. 2009 equivalent – “The Proposal”, “Julie and Julia”, “Ghost of Girlfriends Past”, and “The Ugly Truth”)

10. And one epic action movie – usually with a historical setting with a well known legendary figure. (See “Robin Hood”. 2009 equivalent – “Public Enemies”)

11. A family friendly movie, non-Pixar related. (See “Despicable Me” and “Cats and Dogs 2”. 2009 equivalent – “G-Force” and “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”).

12. One low budget indie that gets some Oscar buzz only to fizzle out at awards time. (See “The Kids Are Alright”, “happythankyoumoreplease”, and “Cyrus”. 2009 equivalent – “500 Days of Summer”)

Ok, let’s take a look at what movies will be taking our money and wasting our time:

MAY 2010:

Iron Man 2: Qualifies under #1, #2, and #3 above.
Opens: May 7th, 2010
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Mickey Rourke, Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Directed by: Jon Favreau

Are you ready for this because this is going to be huge? The only question is how huge. Sequels are usually hit or miss. Rarely are they better than the first, but thanks to the pent up demand, the second part usually opens bigger and sees a greater amount of grosses frontloaded. But once in a while, you get a movie that actually builds on the first one. One that is arguably better (see Terminator 2, Aliens, and The Dark Knight) and outgrosses the first one. There is no doubt that the movie is grossing $400mm (it’ll break $150mm on opening weekend). But if it’s as good as the trailers look, then it’ll crack $500mm easily and be the movie to beat for the summer box office crown.

Pros: Huge demand, must see status, awesome trailers, rumors of Captain America and Thor appearances.

Cons: Can it live up to the first one? Iron Man 2 didn’t have much to work off of from the comic book source material – so they had to make up a story based on a lot of different story lines in the comics. Throw in the fact that there are no well known villains, fan outrage over Scarlett Johansson casting, and you could see a semi-Iron Man backlash.

Robin Hood: Qualifies under #3 and #10
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, William Hurt.
Directed by: Ridley Scott

The team that brought you Gladiator brings you a film that will definitely be compared to Gladiator. My initial reaction to the trailers was, “Eh”. After seeing more trailers, my reaction is still “Eh”. I don’t know what to expect - just another sweeping epic with grand fighting scenes along the likes of “The Patriot”, “Kingdom of Heaven”, and “King Arthur” or a movie that tries to tell the true story behind the legend like last summer’s “Public Enemies” (And you know what, Public Enemies was pretty disappointing)? The filmmakers certainly hope that is not the case, since none of those films did extraordinarily well at the box office (and Kingdom of Heaven and King Arthur were bombs). So what does all that mean? Well, the film lies clearly on the shoulders of Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott. And neither is at the heights of their box office pull. Crowe isn’t the same star as he was after Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind. With State of Play bombing, he’s become less and less a draw. And Scott found little success with Body of Lies. Throw in the fact that the movie has to deal with the second weekend of Iron Man 2 and things don’t look so good. This could be the first box office bomb of the summer. I’m going to say it’ll end up with only $75mm gross.

Pros: The team of Crowe and Scott. Huge production values. Guaranteed to have one "F'ing awesome" fight scene involving a sword and/or bow and arrow.

Cons: Trailers that have failed to excite. Crowe at his box office lowest since "Virtuosity".

Letters to Juliet: Qualifies under #9
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Vanessa Redgrave, and Gael Garica Bernal.

A romantic comedy looking to serve up some counterprogramming to the big budget films Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood. It'll serve the audience looking for a sweet, romantic movie. Seyfried is an up and coming star (she was recently seen in "Dear John") and has her fans of young girls and even some young guys. Bernal (and his accent) has fans of young and old girls. And Redgrave could pull in some adults. But this movie has a limited potential (think "Leap Year" or "When In Rome") before finding an audience on cable and DVD. Final gross of $25mm.

Pros: The adorable Amanda Seyfried.

Cons: Not much seperates this movie from a thousand other romantic films.

Just Wright: Possibly qualifies under #5
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Common, Queen Latifah, and Paula Patton.

A romantic comedy starring a popular rapper playing outside his norm, and a popular actress/singer with a larger fan base than you would think. Throw in some basketball (perfect timing during the NBA playoffs) and a large African American cast (a fan base that will come out to support their own, as Tyler Perry has shown), and we could have our first surprising box office success. I could see this doing $40-45mm if it gets decent reviews.

Pros: Latifah has moderate success with these types of films (The Last Holiday - $39mm and Beauty Shop - $36mm). Counterprogramming in a summer full of films that don't cater to the African American audience.

Cons: Common as a basketball player? I guess it makes more sense than Bow Wow or Fredro Starr.


Shrek Forever After: Qualifies under #3.
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Featuring voices by: Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas, and Julie Andrews.

The animated series that is more successful than any Pixar franchise, yet not nearly as beloved (or good), returns for a fourth and (hopefully) final chapter. All the main characters return including the ogre Shrek, Princess Fiona, donkey, Puss N Boots, and the wonderful dragon (Parker’s favorite). Throw in a cute premise with Rumpelstiltskin and this may do better than the last entry in the franchise. However, the third Shrek left a bad taste in people’s mouth and some may have soured on the series. So expect a huge opening, say $90+mm before it finishes out around 270mm (matching the gross of the first Shrek). Of course, the key with any animated movie is the reviews. If it’s good, which I have yet to hear anything special about it (then again, I know nobody in the industry), then it could make a quality $300+mm total.

Pros: The Shrek franchise has made over $1bn at the box office. Plus; it's in 3D, which is all the rage these days.

Cons: The franchise is on its last legs. People weren't exactly screaming for a fourth one after Shrek the Third.

MacGruber: Qualifies under #4
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Starring: Will Forte, Kristin Wiig, Ryan Phillippe, and Val Kilmer

A halfway decent SNL skit was inexplicably turned into a summer action-comedy flick. This one has “A Night at the Roxbury” written all over it. Expect a lot of ridiculous jokes, gross out humor and violence, and some outlandish acting by Kilmer and Forte. The only way this goes beyond the core audience of SNL’ers is if Kilmer give such a crazy performance (which he is entirely capable of) that the movie becomes must see just for him. Either way, I expect it to make a paltry $35mm.

Pros: Kilmer at his craziest. Kristin Wiig always is worth a couple of laughs - she will be starring in movies sooner rather than later.

Cons: SNL skits to screen can be very hit or miss. Is Forte on the same level as Myers or Carvey?

Sex and the City 2: Qualifies under #3 and #9.
Opens: May 27th, 2010
Starring: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Catrell, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and Penelope Cruz.

Women get your Manolo Blaniks and Jimmy Choo’s ready (although I think in the last few years, Christian Louboutin has become the more popular brand), because this movie will feel like a must see and must get dressed up event for all the ladies out there. After the runaway success of the first film, there was no doubt that a sequel would be greenlighted. The only question is will this movie do better than the first? I’m not so sure, since the movie doubtfully picked up any new fans. Basically if you enjoyed the TV shows, then you watched the first movie. So to be quite honest, I expect more of the same. There will be a huge upfront demand, making for a big opening weekend. The movie will end with a solid $150+mm, on par with the original. Why? Because let’s face it. They aren’t breaking new ground with this movie, what you expect is what you’ll get. Still this is the must see movie event for women this summer and I doubt it’ll disappoint.

Pros: All the women who can relate to Carrie, Samantha, Miranda, and Charlotte. All the women who want a Mr. Big in their lives. All the women who loves designer clothes, shoes, and bags. In other words...all the women want to see this.

Cons: Where will the story go? How many times can people put up with the whole Big and Carrie break up or have relationship difficulties storyline, when they know they'll somehow get back together again.

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: Qualifies under #2 and arguably #3.
Opens: May 28th, 2010
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kinsley, and Alfred Molina
Directed by: Mike Newell

The quota for the annual-summer-Jerry-Bruckheimer-produced-film has been met with this action-adventure based on the popular video game. The trailers are exactly what you would expect from a Bruckheimer action film – lots of cool special effects, bad writing, a surprising male lead (who isn’t who’d you’d expect to be starring in this kind of film), and a pretty lady. I am curious to see how the video game translates to the big screen. The scenes with the dagger and sandstorms remind me of “The Scorpion King” to the 100th degree. Yet the trailer still doesn’t amaze me. Opening on Memorial Day weekend, expect a decent first weekend of $50mm before topping out at a shade over $100mm.

Pro: Bruckheimer is at his best in these types of productions. And people doubted Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Carribean...

Cons: Until I see it, I don't buy Jake Gyllenhal as an action star. And the trailers have yet to make me think otherwise. Actually, the trailers looks pretty stupid (even stealing the Mission Impossible 2 line from Anthony Hopkins). Plus, video games to movies are very hit or miss – and I think this one will be a miss.

Check back next week when I preview June's openings.