Fantasy Football Preview: May 2010

You know my motto; it’s never too early to talk fantasy football. And since May means only three more months before drafts start happening, I think that’s plenty of time to give you my award winning advice.

First off, Rotoworld has previewed its early mock draft. Some interesting points stand out.

• Aaron Rodgers is the new #1 fantasy QB; leapfrogging Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. With an improved offensive line (expect first round draft pick Bryan Buluga to step right in and have a positive impact), I can’t disagree with this argument. Of course, there is always a chance that this is the year Donald Driver starts to show his age. But Jermichael Finley is projected to make the leap and become a Dallas Clark/Antonio Gates like TE threat. Throw in another solid year for Greg Jennings and a nasty third WR in James Jones, and the only hope of stopping this offensive juggernaut is injuries.
• Chris Johnson is the clear cut #1 RB and player overall. However, the threat of holdout does scare me (and I have him as a potential keeper – oh who am I kidding, I’m not keeping him). As mentioned by my two knowledgeable friends, Navid and Scotty Watts, this could play out like Emmitt Smith when he held out for the first two games before finally getting his money.
• MJD over AP for the #2 spot. This is a tossup. Both are no worse than the third fantasy RB/player overall. Sherm is going to have a difficult decision to make. Kind of like when he has to decide whether or not to wear that sweater vest or not.
  
• The obvious #1 fantasy WR looks to be Andre Johnson, but he too is threatening a hold out. With five years left on his contract, I don’t see this one turning out well for AJ. Reminds me of Anquan Boldin’s situation with the Cardinals the last couple of years. Still no reason to knock Andre down though. He’s still better than Megatron, B-Marshall, Fitz, and Reggie Wayne.

Secondly, Peter King came out with his preliminary ranking of the top 32 teams. Here are my thoughts:

• It is important to note that the super bowl winner always has a difficult follow up season (see no further than Pittsburgh Steelers circa last year). And I expect New Orleans to face similar difficulties. No Drew Brees won’t be getting into any legal trouble, and he’ll still be a top 3 fantasy QB (4,500 yards and 30 TD’s), but from a fantasy perspective - I’d be wary of the New Orleans defense. If you based your defensive rankings on last year’s stats (never a wise thing to do by the way), you’ll have New Orleans being one of the first few taken off the board. But I feel a letdown coming on this year. The unit will miss Scott Fujita. No way does Darren Sharper have the same impact in year two. Same goes for Gregg Williams. The unit will be a bye week replacement and no better. On the plus side, expect a breakout year for Robert Meachem. And a fully healthy season from Pierre Thomas.
  
• Also, there has been at least a 50 percent turnover in the playoff teams. Expect no different this year. Let’s take a look at the difference between 2008 and 2009.
• 2008 playoff teams: Atlanta, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tennessee, New York Giants, Carolina, Pittsburgh
• 2009 playoff teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans.
• Basically 2009 saw the NYJ, Cincy, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans account for the turnover. From a fantasy perspective that meant surprising bounceback performances from players like Chad OchoCinco and Laurence Maroney, breakout performances from players like Cedric Benson, Miles Austin, Jermichael Finley, and Robert Meachem, and five of those defensive units were every week starters.
• The teams that fell out of the playoffs were Atlanta, Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Fantasy wise; this saw a decline in stats from Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Kerry Collins, Tennessee Defense, Brandon Jacobs, NYG Defense, Jake Delhomme, Willie Parker, and the Pittsburgh Defense. If you had any of those players, chances are you didn’t do too well.
• What does that mean? Well, if you have a prediction on which teams will make the jump, then you could be in luck with striking fantasy gold. Personally; I think New Orleans, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and New England are in trouble. My forecast for this year’s surprise playoff bound teams: Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Carolina, San Francisco, Washington, and Oakland. Yes, I said Oakland.
• Key players from these respective teams (other than the obvious – i.e. Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart, etc.): Chad Henne, Brian Hartline, Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, Detroit Defense, Matt Moore, Michael Crabtree, Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis, Clinton Portis, Darren McFadden, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schillens.
  

I would call this a tease, but I write way too much. Until June 2010…

The countdown to the draft has begun.