2010 Summer Movie Preview: May

May is here!!!!! And for all those movie lovers out there, that means one of the two best times of the movie year is arriving (the other being holiday movie season from Thanksgiving to Christmas). That’s right…summer movie season kicks off on May 7th. Now with any summer movie slate, there are certain guarantees.

1. The kickoff weekend will be huge for whichever movie studio claims that weekend (See “Iron Man 2”. 2009 equivalent = “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”).

2. Plenty of big budget, special effects driven movies (See “Prince of Persia”, “The Sorcerers Apprentice” and "The Last Airbender". 2009 equivalent; the aforementioned “Wolverine”, "Transformer 2", "GI Joe", and "Star Trek").

3. Sequels, Threequels, Adaptations, Remakes, and Re-imaging’s galore (See “Iron Man 2”, “Sex and the City 2”, "Twilight Saga: Eclipse", and “A-Team”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”, “Harry Potter and the Half-blood Prince”, “GI Joe”, “Angels and Demons”, Terminator Salvation”, and “Transformers 2”).

4. A couple of complete box office disasters (See “Jonah Hex” and “Prince of Persia”. 2009 equivalent “Bruno”, “Funny People”, “Year One” and “Land of the Lost”).

5. A couple of box office surprises (See “Splice” and "The Karate Kid". 2009 equivalent = “District 9).

6. At least one big budget movie will get great reviews and then go on to be a huge crowd favorite and make over $250mm at the box office - thus exceeding expectations (See “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice”. 2009 equivalent = “Star Trek”).

7. One unbelievable Pixar movie (See “Toy Story 3”. 2009 equivalent = “Up”).

8. One comedy that outshines all the others (usually starring Will Ferrell). (See ”The Other Guys”. 2009 equivalent = “The Hangover”)

9. A chick flick that serves as counter programming. (See “Sex and the City 2”, “Eat, Pray, Love”, and “Killers”. 2009 equivalent – “The Proposal”, “Julie and Julia”, “Ghost of Girlfriends Past”, and “The Ugly Truth”)

10. And one epic action movie – usually with a historical setting with a well known legendary figure. (See “Robin Hood”. 2009 equivalent – “Public Enemies”)

11. A family friendly movie, non-Pixar related. (See “Despicable Me” and “Cats and Dogs 2”. 2009 equivalent – “G-Force” and “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”).

12. One low budget indie that gets some Oscar buzz only to fizzle out at awards time. (See “The Kids Are Alright”, “happythankyoumoreplease”, and “Cyrus”. 2009 equivalent – “500 Days of Summer”)

Ok, let’s take a look at what movies will be taking our money and wasting our time:

MAY 2010:

Iron Man 2: Qualifies under #1, #2, and #3 above.
Opens: May 7th, 2010
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Mickey Rourke, Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Directed by: Jon Favreau

Are you ready for this because this is going to be huge? The only question is how huge. Sequels are usually hit or miss. Rarely are they better than the first, but thanks to the pent up demand, the second part usually opens bigger and sees a greater amount of grosses frontloaded. But once in a while, you get a movie that actually builds on the first one. One that is arguably better (see Terminator 2, Aliens, and The Dark Knight) and outgrosses the first one. There is no doubt that the movie is grossing $400mm (it’ll break $150mm on opening weekend). But if it’s as good as the trailers look, then it’ll crack $500mm easily and be the movie to beat for the summer box office crown.

Pros: Huge demand, must see status, awesome trailers, rumors of Captain America and Thor appearances.

Cons: Can it live up to the first one? Iron Man 2 didn’t have much to work off of from the comic book source material – so they had to make up a story based on a lot of different story lines in the comics. Throw in the fact that there are no well known villains, fan outrage over Scarlett Johansson casting, and you could see a semi-Iron Man backlash.

Robin Hood: Qualifies under #3 and #10
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, William Hurt.
Directed by: Ridley Scott

The team that brought you Gladiator brings you a film that will definitely be compared to Gladiator. My initial reaction to the trailers was, “Eh”. After seeing more trailers, my reaction is still “Eh”. I don’t know what to expect - just another sweeping epic with grand fighting scenes along the likes of “The Patriot”, “Kingdom of Heaven”, and “King Arthur” or a movie that tries to tell the true story behind the legend like last summer’s “Public Enemies” (And you know what, Public Enemies was pretty disappointing)? The filmmakers certainly hope that is not the case, since none of those films did extraordinarily well at the box office (and Kingdom of Heaven and King Arthur were bombs). So what does all that mean? Well, the film lies clearly on the shoulders of Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott. And neither is at the heights of their box office pull. Crowe isn’t the same star as he was after Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind. With State of Play bombing, he’s become less and less a draw. And Scott found little success with Body of Lies. Throw in the fact that the movie has to deal with the second weekend of Iron Man 2 and things don’t look so good. This could be the first box office bomb of the summer. I’m going to say it’ll end up with only $75mm gross.

Pros: The team of Crowe and Scott. Huge production values. Guaranteed to have one "F'ing awesome" fight scene involving a sword and/or bow and arrow.

Cons: Trailers that have failed to excite. Crowe at his box office lowest since "Virtuosity".

Letters to Juliet: Qualifies under #9
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Vanessa Redgrave, and Gael Garica Bernal.

A romantic comedy looking to serve up some counterprogramming to the big budget films Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood. It'll serve the audience looking for a sweet, romantic movie. Seyfried is an up and coming star (she was recently seen in "Dear John") and has her fans of young girls and even some young guys. Bernal (and his accent) has fans of young and old girls. And Redgrave could pull in some adults. But this movie has a limited potential (think "Leap Year" or "When In Rome") before finding an audience on cable and DVD. Final gross of $25mm.

Pros: The adorable Amanda Seyfried.

Cons: Not much seperates this movie from a thousand other romantic films.

Just Wright: Possibly qualifies under #5
Opens: May 14th, 2010
Starring: Common, Queen Latifah, and Paula Patton.

A romantic comedy starring a popular rapper playing outside his norm, and a popular actress/singer with a larger fan base than you would think. Throw in some basketball (perfect timing during the NBA playoffs) and a large African American cast (a fan base that will come out to support their own, as Tyler Perry has shown), and we could have our first surprising box office success. I could see this doing $40-45mm if it gets decent reviews.

Pros: Latifah has moderate success with these types of films (The Last Holiday - $39mm and Beauty Shop - $36mm). Counterprogramming in a summer full of films that don't cater to the African American audience.

Cons: Common as a basketball player? I guess it makes more sense than Bow Wow or Fredro Starr.


Shrek Forever After: Qualifies under #3.
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Featuring voices by: Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas, and Julie Andrews.

The animated series that is more successful than any Pixar franchise, yet not nearly as beloved (or good), returns for a fourth and (hopefully) final chapter. All the main characters return including the ogre Shrek, Princess Fiona, donkey, Puss N Boots, and the wonderful dragon (Parker’s favorite). Throw in a cute premise with Rumpelstiltskin and this may do better than the last entry in the franchise. However, the third Shrek left a bad taste in people’s mouth and some may have soured on the series. So expect a huge opening, say $90+mm before it finishes out around 270mm (matching the gross of the first Shrek). Of course, the key with any animated movie is the reviews. If it’s good, which I have yet to hear anything special about it (then again, I know nobody in the industry), then it could make a quality $300+mm total.

Pros: The Shrek franchise has made over $1bn at the box office. Plus; it's in 3D, which is all the rage these days.

Cons: The franchise is on its last legs. People weren't exactly screaming for a fourth one after Shrek the Third.

MacGruber: Qualifies under #4
Opens: May 21st, 2010
Starring: Will Forte, Kristin Wiig, Ryan Phillippe, and Val Kilmer

A halfway decent SNL skit was inexplicably turned into a summer action-comedy flick. This one has “A Night at the Roxbury” written all over it. Expect a lot of ridiculous jokes, gross out humor and violence, and some outlandish acting by Kilmer and Forte. The only way this goes beyond the core audience of SNL’ers is if Kilmer give such a crazy performance (which he is entirely capable of) that the movie becomes must see just for him. Either way, I expect it to make a paltry $35mm.

Pros: Kilmer at his craziest. Kristin Wiig always is worth a couple of laughs - she will be starring in movies sooner rather than later.

Cons: SNL skits to screen can be very hit or miss. Is Forte on the same level as Myers or Carvey?

Sex and the City 2: Qualifies under #3 and #9.
Opens: May 27th, 2010
Starring: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Catrell, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and Penelope Cruz.

Women get your Manolo Blaniks and Jimmy Choo’s ready (although I think in the last few years, Christian Louboutin has become the more popular brand), because this movie will feel like a must see and must get dressed up event for all the ladies out there. After the runaway success of the first film, there was no doubt that a sequel would be greenlighted. The only question is will this movie do better than the first? I’m not so sure, since the movie doubtfully picked up any new fans. Basically if you enjoyed the TV shows, then you watched the first movie. So to be quite honest, I expect more of the same. There will be a huge upfront demand, making for a big opening weekend. The movie will end with a solid $150+mm, on par with the original. Why? Because let’s face it. They aren’t breaking new ground with this movie, what you expect is what you’ll get. Still this is the must see movie event for women this summer and I doubt it’ll disappoint.

Pros: All the women who can relate to Carrie, Samantha, Miranda, and Charlotte. All the women who want a Mr. Big in their lives. All the women who loves designer clothes, shoes, and bags. In other words...all the women want to see this.

Cons: Where will the story go? How many times can people put up with the whole Big and Carrie break up or have relationship difficulties storyline, when they know they'll somehow get back together again.

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: Qualifies under #2 and arguably #3.
Opens: May 28th, 2010
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kinsley, and Alfred Molina
Directed by: Mike Newell

The quota for the annual-summer-Jerry-Bruckheimer-produced-film has been met with this action-adventure based on the popular video game. The trailers are exactly what you would expect from a Bruckheimer action film – lots of cool special effects, bad writing, a surprising male lead (who isn’t who’d you’d expect to be starring in this kind of film), and a pretty lady. I am curious to see how the video game translates to the big screen. The scenes with the dagger and sandstorms remind me of “The Scorpion King” to the 100th degree. Yet the trailer still doesn’t amaze me. Opening on Memorial Day weekend, expect a decent first weekend of $50mm before topping out at a shade over $100mm.

Pro: Bruckheimer is at his best in these types of productions. And people doubted Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Carribean...

Cons: Until I see it, I don't buy Jake Gyllenhal as an action star. And the trailers have yet to make me think otherwise. Actually, the trailers looks pretty stupid (even stealing the Mission Impossible 2 line from Anthony Hopkins). Plus, video games to movies are very hit or miss – and I think this one will be a miss.

Check back next week when I preview June's openings.