Random Thoughts: 2010 Preseason Edition

This is for the ROFFL. Only thirteen people in the world will understand this and I wouldn't have it any other way.

RANDOM THOUGHTS: PRESEASON EDITION

With an uncapped year looming, teams handed out big money contracts like they were wall street bonuses. Lots of big name players on the move, and more importantly lots of impact on the greatest fantasy football league ever. Let's recap:

Thomas jones cut by the new York jets, signs with Kansas city.
Shonn Greene immediately becomes a starter on a run-heavy offense and first round fantasy material. Last years runner up-Five Second Stare owner Jay Cantor-has his second keeper (and a superb RB/WR combo with Andre Johnson). The guy is one lucky son of a bitch (and good looking).Also affected, is Jamaal Charles - definite keeper for defending champion lukinwood owner Josh Lukin. This signing of Thomas Jones actually hurts Charles value, because he goes from top five keeper to top twenty five overall. Still a high value keeper, just not the next 2,000 yard threat due to the number of carries Jones will take away (and possibly goal line touches).

Donovan McNabb traded to Washington Redskins.
Probably the biggest offseason move. McNabb goes from being a top ten QB (not a keeper in our league) and a fifth round draft pick to being a top fifteen fantasy QB and borderline QB1/QB2. Washington just doesn't have the same offensive weapons or the pass happy offensive scheme as Philadelphia. It reminds me a lot of last year's blockbuster deal involving Jay Cutler moving to the Chicago Bears. Cutler went from throwing to Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler to throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox, Matt Forte and Greg Olsen. No wonder the guy threw 26 Interceptions. Now look at what happens to Donovan's situation. Last year he threw to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy. This year he'll be throwing to Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Chris Cooley/Fred Davis and Larry Johnson/Clinton Portis. Not exactly a core of guys that you want to rest your championship hopes on. All in all, I think you downgrade McNabb into the Eli Manning/Carson Palmer range. I think most people will try to bump Santana Moss up a few notches in their rankings, but I think he'll still be the same inconsistent player he's always been. I actually like Devin Thomas as a sleeper (mid-to late round target). Cooley is coming off a season ending injury and I really liked what I saw from Fred Davis, so who knows how the looks will get distributed there. And don't even bother trying to make sense of the Washington backfield (more on that below). As for Philly, Kevin Kolb automatically becomes a sexy sleeper pick (in the Joe Flacco/Matt Ryan range). He's the Aaron Rodgers of 2008 (when Farve left). I think Kolb will have no problem duplicating McNabb's Philadelphia stats. I also wouldn't change any of the rankings for any members of the Philly offense. If anything Maclin moves up a few notches into WR2 territory thanks to a full season under his belt, Celek is a legit top four TE, and McCoy becomes a top 15 RB.

(Prediction - McCoy and DeSean get kept in our league. Kolb gets taken early by someone who loves taking sleepers. McNabb falls so much that everyone thinks it's great value.)

PS - Isn't it just typical of Donovan's career. He plays eleven years without any wide receiver weapons (save for one year with Terrell Owens), then he finally gets some young and exciting wide receiver options to play with and gets traded. And to make matters worse he gets traded to a team with terrible wide receivers. DNabb just can't catch a break.

Santonio Holmes traded to New York Jets. Suspended for four games.
My prediction was that Holmes would be a surprise keeper by Dave (I hate Tom Brady) Allocco. Now Holmes falls into that dreaded "When is he worth the risk" category. Are we talking tenth round? Twelfth? He's a legit WR1/WR2 if he still played for Pittsburgh and wasn't suspended four games. But who knows how he'll fit in on the Jets? Sure Sanchez has the arm. But with Edwards, Cotchery, and LDT there - how many balls are going Holmes way? Not to mention that the Jets are still going to be a power running team led by Shonn Greene. As much as I love Holmes the player, I think he went from keeper status to stay away status.

Kurt Warner retires.
And the Matt Leinert era begins. With Boldin headed out the door (see below), this makes Larry Fitzgerald and Leinert two of the biggest question marks coming into the offseason. Saying that about Fitzgerald may sound surprising, but I've seen him ranked in the "way too early" WR rankings in the eight-ten range. This is a guy who was the #1 or #2 WR and is still in his prime. Is his value affected by Warner that much? I don't think so. Leinert will still look to Fitzgerald early and often. And if you were to look at Fitzgeralds stats when Boldin did not play and when Leinert was under center, you'd see that his stats were still impressive. Fitz is still a top two WR in my opinion. Meanwhile, Boldin is replaced by Early Doucet, who suddenly becomes a top 25 fantasy WR. And Leinert gets his last chance to show he isn't a bust. If that's not motivation enough, then I don't know what is. Leinert will most likely be drafted in the backup fantasy QB role (along the likes of Vince Young and Mark Sanchez), but he could play his way to starter material. He still has some sick weapons to play with.

Anquan Boldin traded to Baltimore Ravens.
Boldin finally gets his chance to be the #1 WR and gets his big money contract. And we'll finally get to see if he benefited from playing with Fitzgerald and having all those single coverages or if he is truly one of the game's elites. This situation reminds me a lot of Shawn Marion when he played from the Phoenix Suns. Marion was a fantasy stud (top five pick) thanks to his across the board stats. But those stats were inflated because he played for a high octance offense led by Steve Nash. Then Marion thought he was a star and he wanted out of Phoenix. Well he got his wish. Now he’s been traded twice and he's not even a top ten player at his position. Is that what Boldin's future in Baltimore has in store, because I see a lot of similarities between the two? Boldin was a fantasy WR stud (kept two years in a row in our league) and top ten at his position thanks to his high reception, yardage, and TD totals. But were those stats inflated because he got to play in a high octane offsense led by Kurt Warner, not to mention be able to line up along side Fitzgerald. I guess we’ll find as early as next year. In the meantime, I think you upgrade Joe Flacco to borderline fantasy starting QB. Downgrade Derrick Mason to WR 3 territory (he’s going to see a drop in looks and catches). Look for a reduction in catches for Ray Rice as well. As for Boldin, I can see someone taking him as their #1 WR, but he’ll play more like a #2.

Ben Roethlisberger receives 4-6 game suspension.
He could still be traded, but either way Big Ben has to be downgraded in all fantasy drafts. Not only will he lose time on the field, he’s lost one of his favorite targets in Santonio Holmes. And who’s to say if he hasn’t also lost the trust of his teammates? Even last year, before all the problems with women, he was criticized for not playing after he was medically cleared after his concussion. Disregarding those potential locker room issues, losing Holmes may hurt the most. That means his options are Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Limas Sweed, and the recently signed Antwaan Randle-El. Hines Ward isn’t getting any younger – he’s got maybe another year or two before he starts to drop off. Mike Wallace showed some flashes last year and I look for him to benefit the most. Sweed has been a disappointment and Randle-El is a trick play kind of guy. This wide receiver core will really miss Santonio Holmes. Downgrade Big Ben to backup fantasy QB…as a matter of fact, just do what all women who cross Ben’s path should do and stay the F away.

Nate Burleson signs with Detroit Lions.
Not a major signing compared to the above moves, but this will have fantasy impact. Not only is Burleson an effective fantasy wide receiver capable of catching a 5-8 balls with the potential for a one-hundred yard effort. The man is also a good punt returner. But above all, his impact will be felt in the number of double coverage’s he will take away from Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Burleson will be worth a WR3/bench spot. But Calvin could make the colossal leap to elite status now that an adequate wide receiver will line up opposite him (and will more than a little help from the development of Matthew Stafford). Calvin is top 5 now, Burleson is top 40.

Brandon Marshall traded to Miami Dolphins.
The biggest blockbuster trade of the offseason. Miami saw your call Jets, and they raised you +$200. For now, Brandon Marshall’s value stays the same – he’s still a top seven wide receiver and WR1 worthy (and a difficult keeper choice will have to be made by Scotty Watts between Marshall, Calvin, and Aaron Rodgers). For Marshall talent was never an issue it was always about his mental state. He clearly didn’t get along with Josh McDaniels and needed a fresh start. He finds that in Miami where Tony Soprano and Bill Parcells will have to keep Marshall happy and under control. Chad Henne automatically gets an upgrade at QB. Henne’s got to be in the Matt Leinart range now, since they both have similar weapons (stud WR and quality possession guy along with pass catching RB’s out of the backfield). And if you haven’t seen Henne play, just know he has a good arm and isn’t merely a game manager. He is an upgrade over Kyle Orton. I also think this gives Devone Bess some added value, since he’ll be playing in the slot and will be a good bet for 5-6 catches a game with B.Marshall garnering all the attention.

Chester Taylor signs with the Chicago Bears.
Does this kill Matt Forte’s value? Forte is no Adrian Peterson, and Chester Taylor was still valuable the last few years backing up A.P. Now coming off a disappointing season, Forte got a huge wakeup call after being the darling of the fantasy world following his rookie year. Right now, forte's barely a RB2 in the fantasy world. And wasn’t what made Forte so valuable was his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. And isn’t that what Taylor does best? This looks like a timeshare more than a clear cut starter and a 3rd down/change of pace back situation. I think you rank them both a mere five spots apart in the late 20’s/early 30’s range.

Julius Peppers signs with Chicago Bears.
The biggest free agent move on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears were obviously fed up with their poor defense that past couple of years and wanted to go back to the good old days. But is Peppers the man to lead them there? There is no denying his talent. He’s been a double digit sack machine his entire career, but he’s also never led a Carolina defense to top five fantasy status when he played there? And I’m always skeptical of defensive players who sign a big free agent contract (see Albert Haynesworth). I just don’t think they ever equate to the worth of the contract. Either way, the big key will be whether Brian Urlacher comes back healthy. Urlacher in the middle, Peppers on the edge, and throw in some Charles Tillman and Tommie Harris and watch them be a favorite sleeper fantasy defense for a lot of team’s come next draft. I’m just not buying yet considering they still have to play Minnesota and Green Bay four times.

Antonio Cromartie Jr. traded to New York Jets.
We are on a defensive run here in our offseason recap. Cromartie goes to the NY Jets, replacing the disappointing Lito Sheppard opposite Revis Island. And now everyone is lauding the Jets defense as even better than last year. The experts and fans say the J-E-T-S now have two shut down corners on both sides of the field. With mastermind Rex Ryan running the show, nobody will have a chance to throw the ball against the Jets. Well, consider me skeptical. Cromartie was fantastic in 2007, but he’s been on a statistical decline ever since. In addition, the man is known to have serious off the field issues (giving Travis Henry and Shawn Kemp a run for their money in the sperm donor of the decade award). Does Cromartie have a great opportunity to succeed…absolutely! I just don’t believe it’s a can't miss, to the point that you have to pay the cost of a high round draft pick to get this defense (which will be an 8th to 10th rounder).

Karlos Dansby signs with Miami Dolphins.
In my humble (unbiased) opinion, Dansby was the player the Giants should have gone after. So instead of paying big money for a safety and then looking to fill middle linebacker via the draft, the Giants could have gone after Dansby and looked to fill the safety position via the draft (say Earl Thomas or even trading up to get Eric Berry). Anyhoo, the leader of the Arizona defense moves on to Miami where they hope he will continue his pro bowl ways. I think it’s a good signing and Dansby will provide solid leadership, but the Miami defense as a whole is still iffy and more of a weekly fantasy plug and play (like when they face Buffalo twice next year).

Antrell Rolle signs with the New York Giants.
Rolle will fill a huge hole that the Giants defense had last year (and hopefully team up with Kenny Phillips to create one heck of a safety tandem). He costs a lot of money, but the Giants still have a lot of problems defensively. A solid cornerback would help (Corey Webster was getting beat on the regular), as would a better pash rush (disappointing last year consider this has been the Giants Defenses bread and butter the past few years). Until I see a bounceback year from Osi, Tuck, and co…the Giants defense should not be taken within the first ten defenses. By far the #2 defense in New York/New Jersey.

Jake Delhomme signs with Cleveland Browns.
Despite playing his way out of Carolina, the turnover machine gets another chance with the Mike Holmgren run Cleveland Browns. I was a bit surprised by this signing, I thought Brady Quinn was going to be the man (or at least given a chance). However, Quinn was sent packing (as was Derek Anderson). So this is Jake’s team for now, until the Browns can groom their future QB (Colt McCoy maybe?). Now, I’ve always been a fan of Delhomme, but he no longer has Steve Smith to throw the ball to (and even when he did the last two years, he didn’t play so well). Who are his options now? Mohammad Massoquai, Brian Robiskie, Chansi Stuckey, and Joshua Cribbs!!!! Four guys that don’t belong in anyone’s fantasy starting lineup. My prediction is Jake won’t be drafted, so he'll be available as a free agent pickup for those bye weeks or when another QB gets injured (rank him along JaMarcus Russell).

Brady Quinn traded to Denver Broncos.
A potential fantasy QB for your bench (and bye week replacement) is now on the bench in real life hoping for a Kyle Orton injury. My how the mighty have fallen. Quinn went from being a potential number one pick after his junior year, to staying in college and watching his draft stock fall, to playing for his home team, to being traded, and now finds himself as a backup again. This guy just wasn’t meant to make it in the NFL. Stay away.

Willie Parker and Larry Johnson sign with Washington Redskins.
In the “what the hell” department, we have the Washington Redskins (already with Clinton Portis on the roster) signing two past their prime running backs. On top of that, the Redskins hired Mike Shanahan to be their coach. This is the same guy who took any no name off the street and made him a 1,000 yard running back at Denver (see Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, and Quentin Griffin). Why not just let Shanahan reunite with Portis (especially when they had so much success in the past) or work with Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts? Was “No Longer Fast” Willie Parker and the other Larry Johnson (Grandma-ma will always been the original Larry Johnson to me) the answer to their backfield concerns? It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these guys is cut in the preseason. If not, stay away from all three come draft time. Let them be someone else’s headache.

(THIS IS RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THAT I GOT TOO TIRED TO WRITE ANYMORE)

LaDanian Tomlinson signs with the New York Jets.
Old. Past his prime. It's still the Shonn Greene show. With that said, I fully expect Nick Serrano to keep him.

Scott Fujita signs with Cleveland Browns.
Fujita is a solid player, but it won't make a big difference for the Browns. However, I think you knock the New Orleans defense down a few spots. Fujita was one of their defensive leaders.

Kerry Rhodes traded to Arizona Cardinals.
Won't replace Antrel Rolle, but he's be a decent replacement. Arizona's defense gets knocked out of draftworthy status.

Derek Anderson signs with Arizona Cardinals.
Just in case Matt Leinart doesn't work out. But make no mistake, D.A. is not coming in to challenge for QB1 (Friday Night Lights talk). So not really fantasy news worthy.

Antonio Bryant signs with Cincinatti Bengals.
Interesting that the Bengals went with Bryant instead of Terrell Owens. Bryant showed in 2008 that he could be a top 15-20 fantasy WR, but he's also shown he's very inconsistent and lacks the proper motivation. Maybe playing alongside OchoCinco will help. He's a decent WR3 with potential to move up to WR2, if Carson Palmer is fully healthy.

Tony Scheffler traded to Detroit Lions.
I have to admit, I like what the lions are doing on the offensive side of the ball (Calvin and Burleson, Scheffler and Pettigrew, Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best). Scheffler has always been one of those guys who was a sleeper, everyone thought he'd break out one of these years. And he's shown flashes of potential, but couldn't stay healthy or stay with Cutler long enough. Now he moves on to a timeshare with Brandon Pettigrew. I really liked Pettigrew coming into this season, but this potentially kills both TE's value. Situation could be New England like when they had Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. In other words, more frustrating news for fantasy owners.

NFL Draft recap coming soon. Thanks for reading.