Fantasy Football: July 2010

Since my fellow blog brother finally initiated the "hard launch" on his fantasy football blog...http://sdubsports.com/...I thought it was time to give you a true experts thoughts on the upcoming season.

And since all experts love to compare people to past performers, here you go.

RUNNING BACK:
The #1 RB at the end of the year will be Ray Rice.

#2 will be Jamaal Charles - who will be this years Chris Johnson. Don't worry about Thomas Jones, JC will finish with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

Chris Johnson will be this year's Michael Turner. Justifiably hyped in the pre-season as a top back. Question marked for overuse in the previous year. Will have a good season, but will not match prior year's production.

If you have one of the top 6 RB's (CJ2K, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore, Charles), then I'd wait to get a 2nd RB. There is tons of value in the Matt Forte/Michael Bush/Justin Forsett/Donald Brown/Ahmad Bradshaw/Arian Foster/Montario Hardesty/Fred Jackson/Clinton Portis group. All guys will go in rounds 5 or later and produce just as well as the Ronnie Brown's/LeSean McCoy's/Joseph Addai's of the fantasy world.

QUARTERBACK:

If you sleep on Kevin Kolb, you will regret it like everyone who passed on Aaron Rodgers the year after he took over for Brett Favre.

QB is a pretty deep position this year, so if you can't get one of the top 5 QB's (Roders, Brees, Peyton, Romo, Brady) then I would wait and double stack on two up and coming QB's in hope one breaksout. That list includes Kolb, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, Matt Leinart, Matt Moore, and Jason Campbell.

WIDE RECEIVER:

This year's Sidney Rice...Jacoby Jones. Both play for teams with three solid WR's. Both have excellent QB's (top 7 fantasy QB's in Schaub and Favre). Both play for offensive powerhouses.

Vincent Jackson will be this year's (and the year before) Brandon Marshall. A guy people stay away from due to suspensions, but ends up with over 1,000 yards and is a great value pick. Vjax is missing 3 weeks. I know rumors say he may hold out. I say if you stack up on a RB and QB early in your draft, I'd take a flier on Vjax as you number 1 WR. He might not be better than say Santana Moss. But the reward is far greater and you don't win fantasy football championships by playing it safe.

Out of all the breakout wide receiver candidates, I like Michael Crabtree the most. He has the best shot at jumping to the tier 1 category of fantasy WR's. I like what I saw from him last year. I expect Vernon Davis to regress this year, so more balls for Crabtree. I think the 49ers will have an easy schedule playing against the NFC West. And the 49ers defense will work wonders at providing the offense with excellent field position.

There are many sleeper picks I like: Devin Aromashodu, Golden Tate, James Jones, the aforementioned Jacoby Jones, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Malcom Floyd, Chaz Schilens, Jabar Gaffney, Nate Burleson, Devin Thomas. I think if you're in a deep league (say 12-14 teams), then my game plan would be to get two stud WR's early. Wait on your #3 WR and get one of these guys. That way you can load up on QB/RB/TE. Who knows you may even get two of these sleepers and have the luxury of mixing and matching.

TIGHT END:

Deepest position of the draft. I'm almost inclined to let the big guys go (Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley) and take better value later on in the draft. I think Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Fred Davis, Tony Scheffler, John Carlson will all have just as good seasons as some of the other bigger name players (Tony G., Vernon Davis). Even better, since I count at least sixteen quality TE's available, you can wait until the very end and pick up two of the tier 3 guys and hope one breaks out. Hey, it worked for whoever took Brent Celek or Vernon Davis.

DEFENSE/KICKER:

While I agree that it is wise to wait until the very end to take a kicker and defense, I think there is an argument to be made for going one round early (if you're in a 15 round league, picking defense/kicker in some order in the 13th and 14th round). Unless there is someone you really, really, really like...then I'd jump on getting a guy or defensive unit that you can feel comfort in playing each week. Yes, you may get lucky playing the weekly matchups routine or finding a surprise on the waiver wire. But odds are there will be plenty of people in your league who carry more than one at each position. And that's not even starting to go into always figuring out who to drop. Bench spots are valuable. Playing that game can come back to haunt you.

As my former blog brother would say...only 38 days until the ROFFL draft. Better get studying.

Fantasy Football Preview: May 2010

You know my motto; it’s never too early to talk fantasy football. And since May means only three more months before drafts start happening, I think that’s plenty of time to give you my award winning advice.

First off, Rotoworld has previewed its early mock draft. Some interesting points stand out.

• Aaron Rodgers is the new #1 fantasy QB; leapfrogging Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. With an improved offensive line (expect first round draft pick Bryan Buluga to step right in and have a positive impact), I can’t disagree with this argument. Of course, there is always a chance that this is the year Donald Driver starts to show his age. But Jermichael Finley is projected to make the leap and become a Dallas Clark/Antonio Gates like TE threat. Throw in another solid year for Greg Jennings and a nasty third WR in James Jones, and the only hope of stopping this offensive juggernaut is injuries.
• Chris Johnson is the clear cut #1 RB and player overall. However, the threat of holdout does scare me (and I have him as a potential keeper – oh who am I kidding, I’m not keeping him). As mentioned by my two knowledgeable friends, Navid and Scotty Watts, this could play out like Emmitt Smith when he held out for the first two games before finally getting his money.
• MJD over AP for the #2 spot. This is a tossup. Both are no worse than the third fantasy RB/player overall. Sherm is going to have a difficult decision to make. Kind of like when he has to decide whether or not to wear that sweater vest or not.
  
• The obvious #1 fantasy WR looks to be Andre Johnson, but he too is threatening a hold out. With five years left on his contract, I don’t see this one turning out well for AJ. Reminds me of Anquan Boldin’s situation with the Cardinals the last couple of years. Still no reason to knock Andre down though. He’s still better than Megatron, B-Marshall, Fitz, and Reggie Wayne.

Secondly, Peter King came out with his preliminary ranking of the top 32 teams. Here are my thoughts:

• It is important to note that the super bowl winner always has a difficult follow up season (see no further than Pittsburgh Steelers circa last year). And I expect New Orleans to face similar difficulties. No Drew Brees won’t be getting into any legal trouble, and he’ll still be a top 3 fantasy QB (4,500 yards and 30 TD’s), but from a fantasy perspective - I’d be wary of the New Orleans defense. If you based your defensive rankings on last year’s stats (never a wise thing to do by the way), you’ll have New Orleans being one of the first few taken off the board. But I feel a letdown coming on this year. The unit will miss Scott Fujita. No way does Darren Sharper have the same impact in year two. Same goes for Gregg Williams. The unit will be a bye week replacement and no better. On the plus side, expect a breakout year for Robert Meachem. And a fully healthy season from Pierre Thomas.
  
• Also, there has been at least a 50 percent turnover in the playoff teams. Expect no different this year. Let’s take a look at the difference between 2008 and 2009.
• 2008 playoff teams: Atlanta, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tennessee, New York Giants, Carolina, Pittsburgh
• 2009 playoff teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans.
• Basically 2009 saw the NYJ, Cincy, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and New Orleans account for the turnover. From a fantasy perspective that meant surprising bounceback performances from players like Chad OchoCinco and Laurence Maroney, breakout performances from players like Cedric Benson, Miles Austin, Jermichael Finley, and Robert Meachem, and five of those defensive units were every week starters.
• The teams that fell out of the playoffs were Atlanta, Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Fantasy wise; this saw a decline in stats from Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Kerry Collins, Tennessee Defense, Brandon Jacobs, NYG Defense, Jake Delhomme, Willie Parker, and the Pittsburgh Defense. If you had any of those players, chances are you didn’t do too well.
• What does that mean? Well, if you have a prediction on which teams will make the jump, then you could be in luck with striking fantasy gold. Personally; I think New Orleans, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and New England are in trouble. My forecast for this year’s surprise playoff bound teams: Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Carolina, San Francisco, Washington, and Oakland. Yes, I said Oakland.
• Key players from these respective teams (other than the obvious – i.e. Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart, etc.): Chad Henne, Brian Hartline, Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, Detroit Defense, Matt Moore, Michael Crabtree, Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis, Clinton Portis, Darren McFadden, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schillens.
  

I would call this a tease, but I write way too much. Until June 2010…

The countdown to the draft has begun.

How to win your fantasy football league.

It’s almost that time of the year. Fantasy football season baby!! In a month or so, the 2010 fantasy football magazines will start appearing at a newsstand near you. So prepare for lots of rankings, sleepers, busts, keepers, and my personal favorite…the experts guide on how to win your league. And as a so-called expert (I have finished last, 12th, 10th, 6th twice, 3rd, and 2nd in my fantasy football league), I get this question asked to me all the time. So without further ado, here’s my guide on how to win your FF league.

1. Find a group of 9-13 people who think football is that sport with the World Cup. If they don’t speak English, even better.

2. Anoint yourself treasurer of said league. Collect “fees” upfront.

3. Set up a date and time to do a live draft – preferably at an abandoned building or warehouse.

4. Find your old fantasy football magazines (preferably ones with Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, or Ahman Green on the cover). Give them out to your fellow league members as prep material.

5. Buy a draft board without the named stickers – instead buy blank stickers so you have to write in the names yourself. That way there is no confusion when someone can’t find that Jerry Rice sticker.

6. Hire scantily clad females to walk around during your live draft - thus distracting your fellow league members.

7. After each one of your league members makes a pick - say sarcastically, “Wow, that’s a great pick.” For example. With the first pick, Rich picks “Shaun Alexander”. You reply, “Wow, that’s a great pick”.

8. Wish everyone good luck. Change your phone number, email address, and move.

9. Repeat steps 1-8 above.

Weekly Random Thoughts: 5/7/10

1. I went to see Cirque Du Soleil: Ovo last weekend. It was my first time ever seeing a Cique Du Soleil show or visiting Randall’s Island for that matter. I thought it was a very good show. Some really awesome sections and some few slow spots. Either way, I’d highly recommend it unless you’ve seen the other Cirque Du Soleil shows (which I heard once you’ve seen one, you don’t see anything new). Some thoughts/questions:

• a. My first thought when I saw all the performers was of the character Yen in the Oceans movies. I love Ocean’s Eleven.
• b. There was a part where one performer was standing on one hand atop what looked like a mini-staircase without the stairs. It was definitely an impressive showing of balance and strength. But by the fourth time the person was doing it, it got kind of boring. Then again, I can barely stand up on one leg, so who am I to talk.
• c. The six jugglers/twirlers (with the big plastic kiwis and pieces of corn) were one of the highlights of the show. Yet, I kept hoping that one of them would drop the kiwi or the corn. Yes, behind my nice guy act I am a horrible person.
• d. The acrobats (or Robin’s as I like to call them) were cool, but nobody went flying across the entire stage. So I was a little disappointed. That dude Yen from Ocean’s Eleven would have totally went across the stage. Heck, Chris O’Donnell would have too.
• e. The crowd interaction part was very funny. Most people hate being picked out of the audience and made center of attention. I know I do. Actually, I only know one person who loves to be picked for this kind of stuff. His name is Sean McBride…he’s a comedian. Youtube him.
• f. The rock climbing/trampoline section ended the show on a high note.
• g. I wonder how many hours a day these people train?
• h. And I wonder how much the performers get paid?

2. Hugo Weaving has officially been cast as the new villain, Red Skull, in the upcoming Marvel film, The First Avenger: Captain America. If you don’t know who Hugo Weaving is by name, well you definitely know the face or voice. He played Agent Smith in the Matrix trilogy, was the voice of Megatron (not Calvin Johnson, relax Scotty Watts) in the Transformers movies, and was also in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Since the Matrix premiered in 1999, Weaving has been in 14 movies (most recently “The Wolfman” remake). Those 14 movies have grossed $2.68bn in domestic box office, which averages out to $191.3mm per film (and that’s including 3 low budget movies that made less than $150k each). That’s Will Smith/Tom Hanks/Tom Cruise territory. But of course Weaving would never be referred to as an A-lister (a guy who could open up a movie himself). He’s basically this decade’s Jeff Goldblum. Goldblum, if you remember, was the co-star of such hits in the 1990’s as Jurassic Park, Independence Day, and The Lost World. Goldblum was the go to supporting actor for big budget films and he did it masterfully. As my friend, Jay the comedian would say - I miss Jeff Goldblum.

3. Every summer there are a few songs that tear up the radio waves and become the unofficial summer jam. Last year it was Keri Hilson, Drake, Lady GaGa, and Black Eyed Peas. It’s early, but so far my prediction for the summer jam of 2010 are:

• a. Usher feat. Will.i.am – omg
• b. Travis McCoy feat. Bruno Mars – billionaire
• c. B.O.B. feat Bruno Mars - Nuttin on You (or the new song “Airplanes”)
• d. Other artists with songs coming out soon (I haven’t heard them yet) – Eminem, Katy Perry, T-Pain, Christina Aguilera, Drake, Pitbull, Miley Cyrus, and M.I.A.

4. Some small, low budget indie film called “Iron Man 2” comes out today. Apparently the reviews have been worse than the first one (generally in the C-B/2 star range). And after having some time to digest the movie (I wrote a blog entry about it – you should read it) and reading the reviews, I can see why people think it is only an OK movie. I was probably swayed by the crowd and atmosphere when I saw the early preview. Still worth watching though. It’s a fun movie that is the essence of good popcorn flicks.

5. Last week’s random thoughts recap:

• a. Nightmare makes only $32mm. It’ll be lucky if finishes with $65mm.
• b. Met’s blow the Philly series and show no resiliency. But at least they didn’t get swept.
• c. I was 3-0 in my NBA playoff predictions – Atlanta came back and won games 6 and 7. Utah and L.A. both closed out in game 6.
• d. The answer is that you do not say “Bless You”.
  

6. NFL Draft (rounds 2 – 7) fantasy preview: I did my review of the round one NFL draft and its fantasy impact last week. Well, here are some non-first rounder’s that may have fantasy potential this year.

• a. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – Probably won’t get many carries behind Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, but could see time lined up in the slot. He’s a good pass catcher, but probably won’t get enough looks to warrant drafting (barring injury to Charles/Jones). Then again, he could be Reggie Bush-like.
• b. Jimmy Clausen, Panthers – A good chance to start at some point in the season if Matt Moore fails to produce. Could have a similar first year to Jay Cutler - start by week ten or so, show promise, but ultimately not fantasy worthy unless in keeper leagues.
• c. Toby Gerhart, Vikings – A good downhill runner that grinds the yards out. Expected to take on role left by Chester Taylor, but not an excellent pass catcher. Not sure how he gets carries playing behind Adrian Peterson. Could be a fullback. See Jacob Hester.
• d. Colt McCoy, Browns – Probably won’t see the field this year, but he has a chance to be the best of this year’s QB crop. Has a little Drew Brees in him.
• e. Joe McKnight, Jets – Made Leon Washington expendable. Expect him to be used in change of pace and pass catching situations, but will fight Tomlinson for those. Won’t be fantasy worthy this year, but down the road has a chance to be like Leon.
• f. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – Stuck behind Mendenhall, but Pittsburgh has always employed more than one RB (think Mewelde Moore). Dwyer could play a similar role as a change of pace/pass catching back. But Mendenhall will still be the workhorse.
• g. Anthony Dixon, 49ers – Another RB rookie the 49ers hope to relieve some of the workload from Frank Gore. Not sure if Dixon will make much of an impact, but the 49ers do have a solid, rebuilt offensive line. Keep an eye out for him as a late rounder.
• h. Mardy Gilyard, Rams – Has a little DeSean Jackson in him. Could be a threat to break out a long TD catch or run at any moment, but won’t see many catches (hurting value in PPR leagues). Could develop a nice connection with Bradford for years to come.
• i. Ben Tate, Texans – Could immediately step in and be the starting RB for the Texans. In that offense, if he takes the job, he has a chance to be more fantasy relevant than CJ Spiller.
• j. Damian Williams, Titans - Hoping to follow in Kenny Britt’s footsteps as a promising rookie WR for the Titans. But Titans are still a running team and Williams might not garner enough attention to warrant any consideration yet. Could be fantasy worthy toward the end of the season, so keep an eye out.
• k. Jimmy Graham, Saints – a TE prospect that could fit in nicely with the dynamic New Orleans offense. May not be relevant this year, but Shockey won’t be there forever. Could be a stud TE in a few years.
• l. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Possibly the answer to New England’s TE problems. But we all know that New England spreads the ball around and TE’s are either hit or miss (see Ben Watson).
• m. Montario Hardesty, Browns – Could be the starting RB for the Browns (they don’t believe in Harrison). Will struggle behind that rebuilding team, but could have some fantasy worth weeks. A decent mid-late round flier with keeper potential.
• n. Golden Tate, Seahawks – This year’s Percy Harvin. A jack of all trades. Expect to see a few wildcat packages – he’ll run, he’ll catch, maybe even pass and return kicks/punts. He’ll be worth a pickup as a WR3.
• o. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers – Steps into the best situation as a rookie WR, in that he has little competition. Could be the teams #1 WR on day one, which makes him fantasy relevant. But Josh Freeman is still a project and the team will not be known for its passing. A worthy bench player with upside.
  

7. Fantasy baseball update – My team is struggling, mainly because my offense sucks (I’m looking at you Justin Upton). But pitching is starting to come around (wish Grienke or Cliff Lee could actually get a win though). Here are my weekly thoughts:

• a. Tampa Bay has the best pitching staff (Garza, Shields, Price, and Niemann) right now – every one of those guys is top 20 right now.
• b. San Francisco has second best pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez) – best in the NL (with St. Louis a close second).
• c. Good to see David Wright turn it around after last year’s disappointing season – 7 HR’s so far (6 on the road) compared to only 10 last year. But he still strikes out too much and that average needs to go up in the .300 range.
• d. Alex Gonzalez is headed for a career year (Toronto can mash). Watch out for David Freese and Tim Stauffer as below the radar guys who are producing.
• e. Worst teams for fantasy players (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I could only find a handful of guys worth having (Matt Weiters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis (DL), Andrew McCutchen, and Evan Meek) and none of them are playing that well. At least Kansas City and Seattle have stud pitchers.
• f. Buy low candidates – Jason Bay, Prince Fielder, and Josh Beckett.
  

8. NBA playoffs update:

• a. After two games, only the Boston-Cleveland series is tied. That one could go seven.
• b. I expect San Antonio to win the next two at home. They won’t go down without a fight and they are one of the best teams at making adjustments. This one could go seven too.
• c. Utah doesn’t have enough to take down the Lakers…reminds me of the year’s that the Bulls struggled to beat the Pistons (back in the MJ/Isiah days). Utah will have to figure out how to get over the hump (i.e. The Lakers) in order to take the next step. But Deron is a top ten player right now.
• d. Atlanta doesn’t have enough to compete with Orlando. Magic might have easiest road to the conference finals of anyone (I’d be surprised if they lost more than one game along the way).

9. In this week’s edition of ignorance and intolerance:

• a. I went to the Museum of Natural History a while back. As I’m walking through, I pass by one of the staff members. For no reason, other than the obvious, he stops me to tell me that the Asia history section is on the third floor. Ummm…I wasn’t asking.
• b. Went to Bubba Gump restaurant in Times Square with my girlfriend and another couple. And the first question the hostess and waiter asked us was, “So where you visiting from?” Ummm…Queens!!!

10. Friday Night Lights season four starts tonight on NBC. If you aren't watching this show, then you are missing out on the best TV show on right now. "Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"...

Thanks for reading and don't forget to tell your friends.

Weekly Random Thoughts: 4/30/10

1. A nightmare on Elm Street opens up today. I expect it to dominate the box office with a $40mm weekend gross, but expect it to fall quickly and be out of theaters in a month.

2. Next weekend is Iron Man 2. A.K.A. the start of the summer movie season. I can’t wait. And I don’t have to…I got tickets to an early showing on Tuesday night. Lucky me.

3. Big weekend series for the Mets as they face off against the defending NL Champs, Philadelphia. Mets are a half game up in first place and this series will either put to rest all the talk of them being back or reinforce all the talk that they are contenders once again. As a Met fan, all I want is for them to win one game and not get swept. And that’s how sad of a state the Mets fans are in.

4. NBA playoffs have been pretty good so far:
a. The Spurs put down a favored Dallas team with relative ease (becoming only the sixth #7 seed to beat a #2 since the seven game first round series format). Typical San Antonio – coast through the regular season, then turn it on for the playoffs. And another failed season for Nowitzki and Kid.
b. Milwaukee has Atlanta on the ropes without its best big man and behind a rookie PG. John Salmons was a great pickup.
c. Miami failed to even scare Boston, but DWade really showed up in game 4 (otherwise, it would have been a sweep). I expect Wade to leave next year and hope he goes to a contending team that will help him get back to the finals. The guy is my favorite player.
d. OKC is giving the Lakers a difficult time advancing. Lakers will still win in six, but Durant has a chance to be a top two player for years to come and Westbrook is putting himself in the Derrick Rose level of talented, up-and-coming PG’s.
e. Speaking of the Bulls, they just couldn’t keep up with the Lebron Cavaliers. But you can’t fault Rose (or Noah). Both guys really showed up and would make for outstanding compliments to a stud free agent pickup (say Wade or Bosh). If that happens, watch out for the Bulls next year.
f. Jazz are surprising everyone out West and could make it to another finals behind Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. This series has shown me two things: Jazz only can’t lose Deron – the rest (Okur, Kirilenko) are replaceable. And George Karl is missed dearly on the Nuggets sideline.
g. Suns put down a scrappy Portland team and now are looking at a rematch with the hated Spurs. Who would have thought Jason Richardson was the key to the Suns playoff success.
h. Orlando defeated Charlotte in the most boring first round series. I still don’t see Orlando beating Cleveland if Carter is the go to guy (they miss Turkoglu). And curious to see how Micheal Jordan deals with mediocrity in Charlotte, because sadly only the old MJ could save that team.

5. Looking forward to round two matchups (assuming Atlanta comes back, Utah wins at home, and Lakers put away OKC – and yes I am predicting Atlanta being the only 7 game series in round one).
a. Lakers vs. Jazz: Lakers in six. Deron will keep Utah in it, but won’t have enough help. Kobe will pick his spots and Gasol will outplay Boozer.
b. Spurs vs. Suns: Suns get revenge as Nash and Co. take out their anger over the last time these two teams met (when Robert Horry body checked Nash and got Amare suspended).
c. Cavs vs. Celtics: Cavs put away a feisty Celtics team in seven. Look for a few classic games. Lebron wins a few by himself. Pierce and Ray win a couple on buzzer beaters. But Lebron overcomes the elbow injury and moves full steam ahead to the finals.
d. Hawks vs. Magic: Hawks are too tired after a grueling seven game series. Howard breaks out of his mini-funk with a couple of 20-20 games.

6. Fantasy baseball is almost a month of the way done. Here are my surprises so far:
a. Kelly Johnson and Robinson Cano – The two best fantasy 2B in the game.
b. Paul Konerko – Leading both leagues in homers.
c. Francisco Liriano and Ubaldo Jimenez – the early front runners for the AL and NL Cy Young awards.
d. Matt Capps and Jon Rauch – further proof that you never pay too much for saves.
e. Vernon Wells and Barry Zito – finally playing up to their enormous contracts.
f. Mike Pelfrey and Jorge Cantu – possibly headed for career years.
g. Alex Rodriguez and Hanley Ramirez – both off to slow starts.
h. Matt Weiters and Tommy Hanson – why you never over pay for hyped youngsters.

7. Mini NFL draft fantasy recap:
a. Ryan Matthews – coming into best fantasy situation. Could have a Jonathan Stewart like season.
b. CJ Spiller – most hyped rookie RB comes into the worst fantasy situation. So bad that he could become undervalued. Bills will get rid of Lynch (or even Fred Jackson). And speed combined with skill does have a way of making a fantasy impact (see Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson, and Devin Hester). Expect a few long TD scores.
c. Jahvid Best – could be similar to Chris Johnson’s rookie season. I could see Kevin Smith playing the part of goal line carrier and limiting Best’s carries. If so, I could see Best excelling as a speed threat with pass catching ability.
d. Dez Bryant – If Roy Williams is cut, then I think Bryant will break the rookie WR curse and have a 1,000 yard and 8 TD season. The difference will be Tony Romo throwing him the ball.
e. Demaryius Thomas – a WR project who won’t make a huge impact this year. He’ll be given the chance to learn and will be good one day. Just not this year.
f. Sam Bradford – Will have his moments, but expect to see final stats along the lines of Matthew Stafford. However, in three or four years we will be looking at a star.
g. Tim Tebow – will score a few TD’s with special offensive packages, but not enough snaps to justify a draft pick.
h. Jermain Gresham – the top rookie TE will have his moments next year (similar to Brandon Pettigrew), but in a couple of years he will become a top tier fantasy TE.

8. Is anybody following some little horror movie called, “The Human Centipede”? Well I don’t want to follow it, but I can’t help it. It’s like watching a train wreck as its happening; I just can’t keep my eyes away. The movie is so sick and twisted, yet it’s also so original. I honestly don’t think I could make myself watch the movie, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want to check it out just for curiosity sake.

9. Question? If you are in the bathroom stall at work (doing a #2) and somebody in the stall (also doing a #2) next to you sneezes…do you say, “Bless you”?

10. It’s really hard to think of things to write when you have no general theme. Yet, I’m still making it work.

Random Thoughts: 2010 Preseason Edition

This is for the ROFFL. Only thirteen people in the world will understand this and I wouldn't have it any other way.

RANDOM THOUGHTS: PRESEASON EDITION

With an uncapped year looming, teams handed out big money contracts like they were wall street bonuses. Lots of big name players on the move, and more importantly lots of impact on the greatest fantasy football league ever. Let's recap:

Thomas jones cut by the new York jets, signs with Kansas city.
Shonn Greene immediately becomes a starter on a run-heavy offense and first round fantasy material. Last years runner up-Five Second Stare owner Jay Cantor-has his second keeper (and a superb RB/WR combo with Andre Johnson). The guy is one lucky son of a bitch (and good looking).Also affected, is Jamaal Charles - definite keeper for defending champion lukinwood owner Josh Lukin. This signing of Thomas Jones actually hurts Charles value, because he goes from top five keeper to top twenty five overall. Still a high value keeper, just not the next 2,000 yard threat due to the number of carries Jones will take away (and possibly goal line touches).

Donovan McNabb traded to Washington Redskins.
Probably the biggest offseason move. McNabb goes from being a top ten QB (not a keeper in our league) and a fifth round draft pick to being a top fifteen fantasy QB and borderline QB1/QB2. Washington just doesn't have the same offensive weapons or the pass happy offensive scheme as Philadelphia. It reminds me a lot of last year's blockbuster deal involving Jay Cutler moving to the Chicago Bears. Cutler went from throwing to Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler to throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox, Matt Forte and Greg Olsen. No wonder the guy threw 26 Interceptions. Now look at what happens to Donovan's situation. Last year he threw to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy. This year he'll be throwing to Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Chris Cooley/Fred Davis and Larry Johnson/Clinton Portis. Not exactly a core of guys that you want to rest your championship hopes on. All in all, I think you downgrade McNabb into the Eli Manning/Carson Palmer range. I think most people will try to bump Santana Moss up a few notches in their rankings, but I think he'll still be the same inconsistent player he's always been. I actually like Devin Thomas as a sleeper (mid-to late round target). Cooley is coming off a season ending injury and I really liked what I saw from Fred Davis, so who knows how the looks will get distributed there. And don't even bother trying to make sense of the Washington backfield (more on that below). As for Philly, Kevin Kolb automatically becomes a sexy sleeper pick (in the Joe Flacco/Matt Ryan range). He's the Aaron Rodgers of 2008 (when Farve left). I think Kolb will have no problem duplicating McNabb's Philadelphia stats. I also wouldn't change any of the rankings for any members of the Philly offense. If anything Maclin moves up a few notches into WR2 territory thanks to a full season under his belt, Celek is a legit top four TE, and McCoy becomes a top 15 RB.

(Prediction - McCoy and DeSean get kept in our league. Kolb gets taken early by someone who loves taking sleepers. McNabb falls so much that everyone thinks it's great value.)

PS - Isn't it just typical of Donovan's career. He plays eleven years without any wide receiver weapons (save for one year with Terrell Owens), then he finally gets some young and exciting wide receiver options to play with and gets traded. And to make matters worse he gets traded to a team with terrible wide receivers. DNabb just can't catch a break.

Santonio Holmes traded to New York Jets. Suspended for four games.
My prediction was that Holmes would be a surprise keeper by Dave (I hate Tom Brady) Allocco. Now Holmes falls into that dreaded "When is he worth the risk" category. Are we talking tenth round? Twelfth? He's a legit WR1/WR2 if he still played for Pittsburgh and wasn't suspended four games. But who knows how he'll fit in on the Jets? Sure Sanchez has the arm. But with Edwards, Cotchery, and LDT there - how many balls are going Holmes way? Not to mention that the Jets are still going to be a power running team led by Shonn Greene. As much as I love Holmes the player, I think he went from keeper status to stay away status.

Kurt Warner retires.
And the Matt Leinert era begins. With Boldin headed out the door (see below), this makes Larry Fitzgerald and Leinert two of the biggest question marks coming into the offseason. Saying that about Fitzgerald may sound surprising, but I've seen him ranked in the "way too early" WR rankings in the eight-ten range. This is a guy who was the #1 or #2 WR and is still in his prime. Is his value affected by Warner that much? I don't think so. Leinert will still look to Fitzgerald early and often. And if you were to look at Fitzgeralds stats when Boldin did not play and when Leinert was under center, you'd see that his stats were still impressive. Fitz is still a top two WR in my opinion. Meanwhile, Boldin is replaced by Early Doucet, who suddenly becomes a top 25 fantasy WR. And Leinert gets his last chance to show he isn't a bust. If that's not motivation enough, then I don't know what is. Leinert will most likely be drafted in the backup fantasy QB role (along the likes of Vince Young and Mark Sanchez), but he could play his way to starter material. He still has some sick weapons to play with.

Anquan Boldin traded to Baltimore Ravens.
Boldin finally gets his chance to be the #1 WR and gets his big money contract. And we'll finally get to see if he benefited from playing with Fitzgerald and having all those single coverages or if he is truly one of the game's elites. This situation reminds me a lot of Shawn Marion when he played from the Phoenix Suns. Marion was a fantasy stud (top five pick) thanks to his across the board stats. But those stats were inflated because he played for a high octance offense led by Steve Nash. Then Marion thought he was a star and he wanted out of Phoenix. Well he got his wish. Now he’s been traded twice and he's not even a top ten player at his position. Is that what Boldin's future in Baltimore has in store, because I see a lot of similarities between the two? Boldin was a fantasy WR stud (kept two years in a row in our league) and top ten at his position thanks to his high reception, yardage, and TD totals. But were those stats inflated because he got to play in a high octane offsense led by Kurt Warner, not to mention be able to line up along side Fitzgerald. I guess we’ll find as early as next year. In the meantime, I think you upgrade Joe Flacco to borderline fantasy starting QB. Downgrade Derrick Mason to WR 3 territory (he’s going to see a drop in looks and catches). Look for a reduction in catches for Ray Rice as well. As for Boldin, I can see someone taking him as their #1 WR, but he’ll play more like a #2.

Ben Roethlisberger receives 4-6 game suspension.
He could still be traded, but either way Big Ben has to be downgraded in all fantasy drafts. Not only will he lose time on the field, he’s lost one of his favorite targets in Santonio Holmes. And who’s to say if he hasn’t also lost the trust of his teammates? Even last year, before all the problems with women, he was criticized for not playing after he was medically cleared after his concussion. Disregarding those potential locker room issues, losing Holmes may hurt the most. That means his options are Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Limas Sweed, and the recently signed Antwaan Randle-El. Hines Ward isn’t getting any younger – he’s got maybe another year or two before he starts to drop off. Mike Wallace showed some flashes last year and I look for him to benefit the most. Sweed has been a disappointment and Randle-El is a trick play kind of guy. This wide receiver core will really miss Santonio Holmes. Downgrade Big Ben to backup fantasy QB…as a matter of fact, just do what all women who cross Ben’s path should do and stay the F away.

Nate Burleson signs with Detroit Lions.
Not a major signing compared to the above moves, but this will have fantasy impact. Not only is Burleson an effective fantasy wide receiver capable of catching a 5-8 balls with the potential for a one-hundred yard effort. The man is also a good punt returner. But above all, his impact will be felt in the number of double coverage’s he will take away from Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Burleson will be worth a WR3/bench spot. But Calvin could make the colossal leap to elite status now that an adequate wide receiver will line up opposite him (and will more than a little help from the development of Matthew Stafford). Calvin is top 5 now, Burleson is top 40.

Brandon Marshall traded to Miami Dolphins.
The biggest blockbuster trade of the offseason. Miami saw your call Jets, and they raised you +$200. For now, Brandon Marshall’s value stays the same – he’s still a top seven wide receiver and WR1 worthy (and a difficult keeper choice will have to be made by Scotty Watts between Marshall, Calvin, and Aaron Rodgers). For Marshall talent was never an issue it was always about his mental state. He clearly didn’t get along with Josh McDaniels and needed a fresh start. He finds that in Miami where Tony Soprano and Bill Parcells will have to keep Marshall happy and under control. Chad Henne automatically gets an upgrade at QB. Henne’s got to be in the Matt Leinart range now, since they both have similar weapons (stud WR and quality possession guy along with pass catching RB’s out of the backfield). And if you haven’t seen Henne play, just know he has a good arm and isn’t merely a game manager. He is an upgrade over Kyle Orton. I also think this gives Devone Bess some added value, since he’ll be playing in the slot and will be a good bet for 5-6 catches a game with B.Marshall garnering all the attention.

Chester Taylor signs with the Chicago Bears.
Does this kill Matt Forte’s value? Forte is no Adrian Peterson, and Chester Taylor was still valuable the last few years backing up A.P. Now coming off a disappointing season, Forte got a huge wakeup call after being the darling of the fantasy world following his rookie year. Right now, forte's barely a RB2 in the fantasy world. And wasn’t what made Forte so valuable was his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. And isn’t that what Taylor does best? This looks like a timeshare more than a clear cut starter and a 3rd down/change of pace back situation. I think you rank them both a mere five spots apart in the late 20’s/early 30’s range.

Julius Peppers signs with Chicago Bears.
The biggest free agent move on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears were obviously fed up with their poor defense that past couple of years and wanted to go back to the good old days. But is Peppers the man to lead them there? There is no denying his talent. He’s been a double digit sack machine his entire career, but he’s also never led a Carolina defense to top five fantasy status when he played there? And I’m always skeptical of defensive players who sign a big free agent contract (see Albert Haynesworth). I just don’t think they ever equate to the worth of the contract. Either way, the big key will be whether Brian Urlacher comes back healthy. Urlacher in the middle, Peppers on the edge, and throw in some Charles Tillman and Tommie Harris and watch them be a favorite sleeper fantasy defense for a lot of team’s come next draft. I’m just not buying yet considering they still have to play Minnesota and Green Bay four times.

Antonio Cromartie Jr. traded to New York Jets.
We are on a defensive run here in our offseason recap. Cromartie goes to the NY Jets, replacing the disappointing Lito Sheppard opposite Revis Island. And now everyone is lauding the Jets defense as even better than last year. The experts and fans say the J-E-T-S now have two shut down corners on both sides of the field. With mastermind Rex Ryan running the show, nobody will have a chance to throw the ball against the Jets. Well, consider me skeptical. Cromartie was fantastic in 2007, but he’s been on a statistical decline ever since. In addition, the man is known to have serious off the field issues (giving Travis Henry and Shawn Kemp a run for their money in the sperm donor of the decade award). Does Cromartie have a great opportunity to succeed…absolutely! I just don’t believe it’s a can't miss, to the point that you have to pay the cost of a high round draft pick to get this defense (which will be an 8th to 10th rounder).

Karlos Dansby signs with Miami Dolphins.
In my humble (unbiased) opinion, Dansby was the player the Giants should have gone after. So instead of paying big money for a safety and then looking to fill middle linebacker via the draft, the Giants could have gone after Dansby and looked to fill the safety position via the draft (say Earl Thomas or even trading up to get Eric Berry). Anyhoo, the leader of the Arizona defense moves on to Miami where they hope he will continue his pro bowl ways. I think it’s a good signing and Dansby will provide solid leadership, but the Miami defense as a whole is still iffy and more of a weekly fantasy plug and play (like when they face Buffalo twice next year).

Antrell Rolle signs with the New York Giants.
Rolle will fill a huge hole that the Giants defense had last year (and hopefully team up with Kenny Phillips to create one heck of a safety tandem). He costs a lot of money, but the Giants still have a lot of problems defensively. A solid cornerback would help (Corey Webster was getting beat on the regular), as would a better pash rush (disappointing last year consider this has been the Giants Defenses bread and butter the past few years). Until I see a bounceback year from Osi, Tuck, and co…the Giants defense should not be taken within the first ten defenses. By far the #2 defense in New York/New Jersey.

Jake Delhomme signs with Cleveland Browns.
Despite playing his way out of Carolina, the turnover machine gets another chance with the Mike Holmgren run Cleveland Browns. I was a bit surprised by this signing, I thought Brady Quinn was going to be the man (or at least given a chance). However, Quinn was sent packing (as was Derek Anderson). So this is Jake’s team for now, until the Browns can groom their future QB (Colt McCoy maybe?). Now, I’ve always been a fan of Delhomme, but he no longer has Steve Smith to throw the ball to (and even when he did the last two years, he didn’t play so well). Who are his options now? Mohammad Massoquai, Brian Robiskie, Chansi Stuckey, and Joshua Cribbs!!!! Four guys that don’t belong in anyone’s fantasy starting lineup. My prediction is Jake won’t be drafted, so he'll be available as a free agent pickup for those bye weeks or when another QB gets injured (rank him along JaMarcus Russell).

Brady Quinn traded to Denver Broncos.
A potential fantasy QB for your bench (and bye week replacement) is now on the bench in real life hoping for a Kyle Orton injury. My how the mighty have fallen. Quinn went from being a potential number one pick after his junior year, to staying in college and watching his draft stock fall, to playing for his home team, to being traded, and now finds himself as a backup again. This guy just wasn’t meant to make it in the NFL. Stay away.

Willie Parker and Larry Johnson sign with Washington Redskins.
In the “what the hell” department, we have the Washington Redskins (already with Clinton Portis on the roster) signing two past their prime running backs. On top of that, the Redskins hired Mike Shanahan to be their coach. This is the same guy who took any no name off the street and made him a 1,000 yard running back at Denver (see Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, and Quentin Griffin). Why not just let Shanahan reunite with Portis (especially when they had so much success in the past) or work with Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts? Was “No Longer Fast” Willie Parker and the other Larry Johnson (Grandma-ma will always been the original Larry Johnson to me) the answer to their backfield concerns? It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these guys is cut in the preseason. If not, stay away from all three come draft time. Let them be someone else’s headache.

(THIS IS RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THAT I GOT TOO TIRED TO WRITE ANYMORE)

LaDanian Tomlinson signs with the New York Jets.
Old. Past his prime. It's still the Shonn Greene show. With that said, I fully expect Nick Serrano to keep him.

Scott Fujita signs with Cleveland Browns.
Fujita is a solid player, but it won't make a big difference for the Browns. However, I think you knock the New Orleans defense down a few spots. Fujita was one of their defensive leaders.

Kerry Rhodes traded to Arizona Cardinals.
Won't replace Antrel Rolle, but he's be a decent replacement. Arizona's defense gets knocked out of draftworthy status.

Derek Anderson signs with Arizona Cardinals.
Just in case Matt Leinart doesn't work out. But make no mistake, D.A. is not coming in to challenge for QB1 (Friday Night Lights talk). So not really fantasy news worthy.

Antonio Bryant signs with Cincinatti Bengals.
Interesting that the Bengals went with Bryant instead of Terrell Owens. Bryant showed in 2008 that he could be a top 15-20 fantasy WR, but he's also shown he's very inconsistent and lacks the proper motivation. Maybe playing alongside OchoCinco will help. He's a decent WR3 with potential to move up to WR2, if Carson Palmer is fully healthy.

Tony Scheffler traded to Detroit Lions.
I have to admit, I like what the lions are doing on the offensive side of the ball (Calvin and Burleson, Scheffler and Pettigrew, Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best). Scheffler has always been one of those guys who was a sleeper, everyone thought he'd break out one of these years. And he's shown flashes of potential, but couldn't stay healthy or stay with Cutler long enough. Now he moves on to a timeshare with Brandon Pettigrew. I really liked Pettigrew coming into this season, but this potentially kills both TE's value. Situation could be New England like when they had Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. In other words, more frustrating news for fantasy owners.

NFL Draft recap coming soon. Thanks for reading.